4th Alternative is Rob "Bombardier" Davies. A classically trained pianist w… Read Full Bio ↴4th Alternative is Rob "Bombardier" Davies. A classically trained pianist who like many musicians searched for expression outside the accepted norms. This led to experiments in music making using radio noise, synthesisers, and whatever instruments came to hand. Such experiments led to opuses such as Sunburst and Submerged composed when in his mid-20's. Involved in various musical activities and collaborations since then, he has now returned to improvised reflective music with 'edge'.
4th Alternative has now released the first commercial album - "Dunes". Initially a digital only release from 4thalternative.bandcamp.com on 10th November 2011.

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The Edge of Civilisation
4th Alternative Lyrics

No lyrics text found for this track.

The lyrics are frequently found in the comments by searching or by filtering for lyric videos

Most interesting comments from YouTube:

Joe

"Screw you and your tyrannical regime! Go shove your taxes up your ass!"

"It's so beautiful!" 🥲

"Wait, what?!"

"Space colonies grow up so fast. Go on then. Be free, dear child."

"Uhhhhh.....ok...."

"Hey everyone! That's my boy right there!"

"D-don't you want to fight, you know, to keep me in the empire and stuff?"

"Here son! Take this bald eagle. It will bring you luck!" 🫡

ninian storm

@Whatifalthist Nuland Hillary McCain podesta deeply involved start ukraine crisis strike first blood but use woman that put severed finger in wendy chili 2.0 tactic shameless blame russia, recall podesta on putin files

when muller charge manafort for things nothing to do with russia hack but let podesta go for same reason =blackmail dc/Britain(thank Blair Iraq france stolen libya gold) to support blame russia to cover up fact 2 party system failed since mccain-hillary all did united fruit company scandal 2.0 but remain rich

recall fbi never look at physical evidence just crowdstrike/hillary words, cia break glass 2017 inauguration with media claim russia stolen election

left wing media give protest t-shirts to san quan mayor for lying about never receive maria supplies

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qYmCtYLE9k0

george bush 14y ago said add ukraine to nato foreshadow nuland f eu coup 2014 support =

1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nTQ3D1a-j20

2001 pentagon memo kill occupy iraq to syria

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_mrJRHwbVG8

current ukraine gov is proxy since obama drew red line just like did in syria earlier arming rebels telling russia not to interfere while zelensky ethnic cleanse donbass region 7y=

2. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ta9dWRcDUPA

3. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBeRB7rWk_8

Are Eia

2y↑1

Many interesting ideas here, but as a Scandinavian I must say I am somewhat sceptical concerning us someday becoming part of a new American civilization. Although there are likely more pros than cons for stronger ties.

Pros:
- We are all fluent and use english in our day to day.
- We have looked up to and incorporated a lot of aspects of US culture since WW2, especially music.
- We do share many similar goals as the US, especially concerning technology and space exploration.
-We do not have strong ties to continental Europe, and most Norwegians atleast, are very distrusting of both globalism and the EU.
-We are a very egalitarian soceity and naturally mistrust both elites and anti democratic insitutions(again the EU)
-For Norway's sake atleast, we are among the leading nations of NATO and most see this as a more viable military defence solution than any proposed EU army initiativ.
- The US and Norwegian government has agreed to establishing US military bases on our soil(not something me personally or most agree with, but it is what it is atm).
-We already have strong trading ties, and these will likely become stronger in the future as continental Europe loses a lot of it buying power.
- Norway is among the most important allies for the US geographically when it comes to both Europe and Russia, and excerting control over the warming arctic and its ressources.
- We are held in high regard by many of the "left" in the US, and often seen as an ideal society.
- The shared history of the Nordics(especially Norway and Denmark) with the UK/Ireland and old norse's large influence over the english language.

Cons:
- Among a lot of the population, there is a strong anti-US sentiment, mostly concerning it foreign policy. Although this is somewhat balanced by an almost equal parts that adore the US.
- We have very different moral values and what we prioritize as cultures.
- If US follows a more isolationist foreign policy and withdraws from Europe/and or Russia collapses/ceases to be a "threat", there might be few reasons for them to stay in an official alliance with us.
- We put great value on our independence(although it can be debated how independent we actually are).
- There are more and more talks about forming a offical Nordic Alliance of some sort(not just trade and other collaborations), as the EU's power and importance is waning. Ofc this could also make a "marriage between us and the US possibly become more likely in the future.

These are just at the top of my head, and ofc only time will tell wich way the pendelum swings. But personally I am really unsure if this kind of future would be beneficial or utterly detrimental for our Nordic nations. I have little regard for the US in its current form, political leadership and the increasing "commercialization of the individual" in the US.
As the parasitic and ravenous nature of US crony capitalism and corporate culture seems to have completely corrupted every level of your political and social structures. And looks likely to lead straight into a dystopian "cyberpunk-esque" nightmare.

Best outcome for our part would be that we are strong enough to actually excert some influence over such an alliance, and atleast have some say in policy/laws/economy/etc. This would likely lead to a harmonius and positive relationship between us.

Worst outcome would be that we are pretty much annexed by the US, with considerable native dissent from our side, and general hostility towards becoming pretty much just a "puppet state". This would effectively lead to unrest and ongoing conflict between our people.

As it stand in these strange times the future seems very hard to predict, and although my own country(Norway) is doing pretty well(only western country were millenials and Gen Z are doing better than their parents), we only need to look at Sweden to see a former stable and harmonius nation becoming more and fracteous and unstable. It will be interesting to see how things will unfold over the next 20-40 years and onwards, fingers crossed it will lead to good outcomes for both of our cultures and people.

Tor Max

1y↑1

Nietzsche didn't mean that God died - Nietzsche was an atheist and something that doesn't exist couldn't die - but that our living IDEA of God died under the advance of Enlightenment reason, science and Newtonian "laws" of nature.

"We" killed "God".

But with the death of God, the whole superstructure of ethics and certainty and confidence died also. Nietzsche did not celebrate this. It was a warning. That NIHILISM would follow this cosmic event. That we needed to find a new source of inspiration, enthusiasm, joy to affirm life and keep going in the face of all the suffering and challenges and disappointments life brings.

Thus, Nietzsche introduced the Superman, the Overman, the Übermensch; we must overcome ourselves, be a bridge to the Superman, who is free of fixed ideas and has an inner strength of will and is infinitely creative. How far the will can overcome the LOGOS, the TAO, the RTA, is another question. Look at the wars of the 20th century, a sad legacy.

Nietzsche: "God is dead"; God: "Nietzsche is dead".

Erik Jrn

@Gardor My apologies. Apparently, I also should've asked you to read my OP over and over again, and then try to see how the content of my OP relates to the video. Then you would've seen that the video only compares civilizations defined by ethnic and geographical factors. Since my OP is a reply to the video, it has to acknowledge the premises of the video. It could still have expanded on those premises, but I chose not to. A sufficiently large and powerful corporation could definitely colonize planets. It's just not a subject of this discussion.

I'm saddened to hear that you think biology and evolution are two different things, and puzzled that you think survival has nothing to do with the body.

Human motivations largely stem from our emotions, which largely stem from biological responses to sensory input. For instance, we're thirsty, so we're motivated to look for water. We're scared, so we're motivated to look for protection. We're aware of the possibility that we might become thirsty, so we build houses with running water. One of our motivations is to stay alive, which means covering our physiological needs. Another motivation is to be comfortable, which means covering our instinctive needs, even when those instincts are outdated and no longer serve survival. Our personalities have been shaped through our history of sensory input and inner events, ranging from falling out of trees to feeling profoundly embarrassed. These could, theoretically, be simulated for a sufficiently advanced AI, but, and this is important: the input and events we've experienced is nearly infinite, and we don't know which elements are most significant, nor which aren't significant, at all. Exactly how many scent molecules of banana cake does it require, to create a life long emotional association between banana cake and the month of January? How important are such emotional associations in forming our personalities? Remember, to simulate this for an AI, we need an accurate quantification.

"Any form of intuition or common sense is simply the product of vast cross-referencing ability." Sure. Much of the data being cross referenced are sensory input, such as the memory of a scrubbed knee, contributing to the intuition that we'll fall if we run down a steep hill. What does the experience of a scrubbed knee consist of, though? Which parts of the memory are most significant? We can't simulate it, unless we know.

Improvisation is different from intuition. Here's a simplistic, by necessity contrived, example of improvisation: A robot is supposed to split an asteroid into two parts of equal mass. The structure of the asteroid makes that impossible. The robot can split it into two unequal parts, three equal parts, or four unequal parts, that can be combined into two pairs of equal mass. Which will better please the human being in charge of the project? Who's more likely to know: the human being in charge, another human being, or a robot?

Biological neural nets can most likely be simulated in binary computers. First, though, we need to know how the biological neural net to be simulated works, down to the last neuron. We're so far from knowing how our brains work, that it's ridiculous. Once we do know, there's a chance that it'll prove impossible to simulate in binary code/data, but will require analog computers.

A humanoid robot that has no gap to the human experience wouldn't just have to be humanoid in the common sense. It would need the same sensory input and physiological limitations that humans have. It'll need to smell, eat, and taste banana cake, while feeling the cold draft of January air seep from the windows. It'll have to have the memory of falling off a bike, getting a scrubbed knee, feeling that exact type of pain, and reflect on the sight of it's own blood seeping into the gravel on the road.

We're not far from having general intelligence AI. There isn't even a need for humanoid robot bodies. In fact, AIs are more likely to have a human-like experience in virtual bodies, than in physical robot bodies. However, bodies of any sort aren't required for general intelligence. They're required for human intelligence. So, you're right that we'll soon have AI with general intelligence, but completely wrong that we can leave them with tasks that require judgement, without close supervision; their judgement may be intelligent, but it won't be human, and any tasks they'll be given will be meant to serve human interests.

hurhur sjarf

I always have a hard time with your view on American civilization and European civilization and your view that the collapse of European civilization isn't in large part due to the Americanization of Europe.

I mean it boils down to a doom and gloom prediction in which for "Reasons" Europe essentially collapses in on itself and for even more obscure reasons America is to dominate for a thousand years more, I find the Europe prediction especially grim but at least somewhat believable but I find the one for America extremely unlikely, as it seems to go off on a best case scenario.

Firstly the decline of Europe is in large part an effect of American dominance and influence, western Europe is essentially a bad mimic of America with almost identical problems, except that the removal of it's civilizational structure has essentially slingshotted Europe into decline where as with America it is more of a slow march.

As an example in Europe religion rapidly declined, in America Religion is less rapidly declining but still, it is declining, chief among that decline is the hyper productive protestantism you often tout as the building block of America where as Catholicism is supplemented by migration.

Or take population, White America is essentially declining, it is just that the population of America is easily supplemented by Latin Americans where as Native Europe is declining without a reliable integratable source of human capital.

Then of course you have cost of living issues, work issues, housing issues, wealth gap issues which are almost identical across the developed world.

What I feel is at least as likely if not far more likely to happen as your scenario is that America is subsumed by the Latin American world and the detachment of the remaining Anglophone world rather than the Anglofication of Latin America and the Anglophone world, you can already see that in the American south which is essentially an extension of central America at this point.

Meanwhile in the case of Europe, there is historical presedence. In my viewpoint it is more likely that Europe will grow closer and more isolationist especially in the face of a rapidly growing African population which undoubtedly will try to immigrate en masse if and when the global markets collapse, after all, food shortage is unlikely in Europe. Essentially decline/collapse, isolationism, rediscovery, reinvigoration and revitalization seems more likely to me which has already happened with the Greeks, Romans, Byzantines, Italians, Germans etc, it seems like a pattern.

As for Space exploration, this will merely be a result of the technology, will and market for it, I don't really see how America is more prone to it aside from it's technological edge.

All comments from YouTube:

Whatifalthist

2y↑262

Compare news coverage from diverse sources around the world on a transparent platform driven by data. Try Ground News today: https://ground.news/whatif

Prateek

Can u make a video on what can happen if caste system is successfully removed from indian society (like we are trying to do that here ) 🤔

Angamaitë Sangahyando

@Aw F The Baltics have 3 million people, they're utterly irrelevant and a meme.
- Adûnâi

Angamaitë Sangahyando

@Breton-Clapping-Those-Français-Cheeks Neither of my comments can pass, so I will say - they hate the better version of themselves.

- Adûnâi

Angamaitë Sangahyando

@Breton-Clapping-Those-Français-Cheeks They hate their eastern neighbour because they hate what they could be - strong, proud, independent. Ironically, most easterners hate sovereignty just as they do, that's why they destroyed their own empire in 1991. All part and parcel of being part of a Christian culture that venerates a dead desert god. - Adûnâi

Angamaitë Sangahyando

@Breton-Clapping-Those-Français-Cheeks They hate "Russia" because they hate what they could be - strong, proud, independent. Ironically, most Russians hate sovereignty just as they do, that's why they destroyed their own empire in 1991. All part and parcel of being part of a Christian culture that venerates a dead desert god. - Adûnâi

62 More Replies...

Huwinner

2y↑1.6K

America developing a space colony which eventually secedes would be the most American thing ever

Liam !84488282

Isn't that basically Mars in Alita battlangel?

Kuvasz

Which was the story line of Robert Heinlein's "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress."

Mr Tuber

1y↑2

You mean the most British thing ever.

Joe

Zeno Karlsbach

58 More Replies...

Schroeders Current events

2y↑176

What I love about whatifalthist is that, while he’s a smart, well-read, practiced guy, a lot of the content is fun and entertaining. He knows nobody can tell the future, but this Is an interesting excersize and I enjoy it

Chaos T

1y↑1

@Gardor it goes back to the old idea if you don't know history you're going to repeat it. For that saying to work, it takes at least a level of future prediction based on past events. I too don't like when people say it can't be done.

Gardor

2y↑2

The quality of any prediction relies upon the accuracy of historical measurements, understanding and quantifying dynamic factors, how conditionalized the prediction is and statistical computing.. You can calculate a range of probable outcomes with 90% accuracy, but the range can be very wide or relatively tight, depending on the factors I mentioned. So yeah, you can definitely tell the future. I don't like when people say you can't.

Alfred Sutton

2y↑63

Your videos get better and better
Well researched, well written, well read, and we’ll illustrated. Keep up the good work.

Ethan Miller

2y↑122

Alaska doesn't have launch pads because its so far away from the equator. At the equator you are traveling at a much greater speed thus making it easier to speed up more into space. The turn you see in a rocket launch is when the rocket maneuvers to be parallel to the earths surface and accelerate to 29,000 mph (for the space shuttle). This is all to save fuel, weight and cost.

Buster Hikney

@Ethan Miller You are wise to deflect blame from our Reptilian overlords and their puppet political illuminati to a species that went extinct during Mongolian raids.

Ethan Miller

@Buster Hikney you forgot about their overlords... the mole people

Buster Hikney

Rockets curve towards secret landing pads hidden in Antarctica controlled by Big NATO illuminati military complex globalists.

Troy

Oh nice! Thanks I never knew that before. It makes a lot of sense though. Especially when you look at where SpaceX and NASA pads are located.

NorthernCrozz

@Ethan Miller there is an image out there somewhere showing just that!

6 More Replies...

RetroMountain

2y↑1.5K

you know you have a crippling whatifalthist addiction when you click the minute a video pops up

YouTube oppressive censorship

@EpicFortniteDub did you hear what he said ? He wants morality police like in Iran in United States . Becareful these guys are horrible come from anyplace

YouTube oppressive censorship

This guys idiot he think we still live in 1600s and thinks America too free. He anti American and anti science . His predict are sexual fanscy of theocratic authoritarian jerk offs to modern theocracy

Michael Boano

Not using history to analyze potential future usually more crippling than use of history if one believes that certain humans traits have not changed over time eg fear, isolation, anger, pride etc

Fred McGill

@Prod. Flux absolutely! This is my lunch time go to. Gets me through the early part of the day knowing there is a new video to watch at lunch.

We Care

@In Wellens we trust I wonder whether there are similar channels? Surely there must be few but it didnt came under my radar so far...

41 More Replies...

pwaegemans

1y↑4

As a European, I've lived in the Dominican Republic for a few years and I've seen the Anglosphere hit me right in the face. Absolutely frightening. I think the whole American continent will be one civilisation some day, where Spanish will be the dominant language but English equally important.

LBell

2y↑50

Eye of Shiva is an excellent read that I recommend to everyone! It's quite astonishing how smart the Ancient Indian scientists and philosophers were. It's a shame this isn't common knowledge.

Prateek

@Dharm Rakshak look bad in evrething is really not good

Prateek

1y↑1

@Yash Sharma well no uk people are pretty good to indians and indian culture

Yash Sharma

1y↑6

@Dharm Rakshak Let's not talk about it here.

Dharm Rakshak

2y↑2

@Yash Sharma what about religious extremism and racism towards Hindus?

Yash Sharma

2y↑3

@LBell Respect! Australia and Australian people from India. you guys are really nice compared to other westerners especially the U.K. people.😊👍

6 More Replies...

Eduard Wiebe

2y↑34

I love seeing you do Far Future Stuff. Ever considered making a Timeline of probable future events?

ImperialMartin

2y↑12

While not agreeing with you on many things, I do share the same fascination with humanity, or whatever conscious beings will set sail from the cosmic shore of Earth, settling the bodies of our solar system and the stars beyond. What potential civilizations - their arts, sciences, philosophies and politics - could emerge is a fascination beyond compare. While we may personally not witness it, we can live it out a bit in thoughts about futurism, sci-fi and worldbuilding :)

Ground News

2y↑972

It was great working with you again, Whatif! As always, we truly appreciate the effort and detail you put into your videos. Predicting the future is ultimately a lesson of the past. For our team, we’ve seen what happens when tribalism and echo-chambers have taken hold in the past. The lesson is to not let it happen again!

R CHA

Does anyone know how old the kid that's narrating this video is ?

fallen nature

2y↑1

I got ur app because of this video. Don’t disappoint me

Paul Serdiuk

2y↑1

Wait, I just saw you guys sponsoring Lazerpig. Y'all have good taste in YouTube lol

ninian storm

Robert Smith

@Whatifalthist in many videos you predictions of mexico are very dark but in this one is great, I am really curious about it specially with the current socialist president

12 More Replies...

Antonio Spina

2y↑35

Really fantastic video as always, thanks so much for this! Just a few quick comments as i lived in east africa for a few years:
1 - I think you meant to say Rwanda will take over the eastern part of DRC? Burundi is its extremely poor neighbor which has a stifling autocracy
2 - Lagos is pronounced "Lay-gos" by most of the Nigerians I have met

Also, note that the industrialization of Kenya and Ethiopia is happening quite slowly especially given the continued political turmoil and conflict in Ethiopia. I would be curious to hear your take on whether these African countries can really become the next generation of low cost manufacturing, or if they may be outcompeted by South and Southeast Asian countries which have a greater headstart, stronger infrastructure, more stable governments etc

bircruz555

It is generally not wise to gauge things from the present, such as present conflicts. For example, the conflict in Ethiopia has now reached a peace agreement. A secular (long term) view is preferable.

Mikey

2y↑14

These types of vids always fascinate and inspire me to continue to remain unbiased and to learn as much as possible. I’m sharing this with everyone I know, too. Great job!

Nano_Valle17

2y↑16

Whatifalthist is on roll videos coming out pretty fast, very interesting, and quality. Opening my mind up and I’m pretty sure you help me understand historical skills for my Apush class. Appreciate and keep up the amazing work, much love ❤️

David Mason

2y↑10

Talking about civilizations and future cultures in space. Like what the difference would be between people on the moon, and those on mars would be amazing. It would really be something interesting to see.

FreeFoodPhill

2y↑744

One thing I think you missed in your considerations of South Africa is the country of Botswana. Despite being landlocked and the poorest country when released from the British empire, they boast one of the fastest growing economies in the world. They did this by having a stable, liberal democracy and getting Dubiers to invest half their profits on the country and its people.

Kevin Warburton

@IrradiadedCrow A Unified organised wealthy educated small nation if trained and armed well can assert dominance over bigger poorer less unified neighbour's. Many empires were built by minorities wielding power over larger groups as a ruling military caste elite

Dalitso Banda

1y↑2

As a person from the region that Botswana is in, I find it bizarre how it's glorified so often by people that don't know much about it or this region of Africa. Botswana is moderately prosperous but irrelevant, thinking Botswana sets the pace for regional policy is equivalent to thinking Iceland sets the tempo in Europe. Additionally, if you meet any Botswanans you'll soon be confronted by the fact that they aren't enthusiastic about their country. Hope this helps you understand this part of the world better.

Dolphine Achonga

2y↑1

I think he meant that new civilization arise from areas of instability, civil unrest, diverse culture and ideological dissatisfaction. Botswana is stable and content. They would have no motivation to change much.

Luidgi

Thats the less harmful coice nowadays. Meanwhile my Brasil may became a Christian teocracy

lucian boar

@SIYAC we know a lot about it in Romania :) thanks to their currency's name

40 More Replies...

LumpyRex007

2y↑13

Genetic engineering will change the whole thing.
Future obstacles are hard to forecast.

But this was fun to listen to!

tieroller

AI gonna take over. They don't need pesky humans.

uydagcusdgfug hfgsfggsifg

2y↑6

Generally, you want to be as close to the equator as possible when launching rockets. Otherwise it takes exponentially more fuel. You also want to launch them on an Eastern coast, since issues post-launch will only affect the sea

gzbd0118

Depends on the inclination you're trying to get to. There are even retrograde launches, sometimes.

TH

1y↑10

I'm curious to see how the French speaking world will develop or has developed into what it has as a branch of the West, and how it is distinguished from the Anglosphere.

Buster Hikney

Most likely France will become a German speaking country.

psiga

2y↑22

Great brain-food, thank you. One thing that I would add is that nearly-ubiquitous internet access has been an incredible melting pot for so many people around the world. It's becoming harder to lump civilizations onto just the dirt that they're living and dying on simply because they were born there. This is a trend that will only expand over time.

Subhro Roy

2y↑6

I always wondered how civilisations grew.You explained that pretty well man , Thanks!

nhprman

2y↑4

Thanks for this video. Other people might not have taken on such a difficult topic, but you did and made plausible guesses as to the distant future of the world.

Q Studio Music and Production Studio

2y↑8

Great job! A mind expanding experience- I love thinking about the future and sometimes wish my consciousness could be uploaded to the cloud (in multiple AWS / MS Azure regions of course for redundancy!) before I die so that I could witness it all play out- the good and the bad. Being a Christian and given the way heaven is often depicted... being "uploaded" could be said to have some similarities with it. For example being immoral, having no real physical form (asexual?) and time essentially having no meaning / bearing and or constraints on your ability to see what is yet to come.

94SweetGoats

2y↑8

Great video! You can't forget how the internet, post-modernism, de-globalization, etc. will change everything and ultimately we have no idea how the future will look, probably completely alien, but this is one of the most up-to-date predictions I've seen.

KANGaroo Caliphate

2y↑569

I'm obsessed with eastern european history. They have a way of getting through very difficult points in history while producing amazing artists.

Vlad Vilceleanu

1y↑1

that's because art and suffering are related..

Cristian H.

@Milan Vitu that's just western propaganda originated 700 years ago by the catholic church. We've coninuously been at the meeting point of vareous superpowers since 6000 BC and we are still here. Not only that, but we've found ways to prosper and even lead in spiritual, military and technological innovation at times. The continuity is shown in tradition, language and genetics as well. Gypsies aren't gonna overtake nothing, they are a primitive culture and that's already experiencing decay. We're gonna outlast all of you, even if it's under a different name.

Ricardo Nery

@Michael Weston 😂😂😂

Woj

@Michael Weston what do you mean with Polish aren't slavs?

AHMAD FRHAN

@M V White people are not innocent and they mean nothing to us. they are inf- erior peasants

79 More Replies...

DHM

2y↑7

Something worth noting is that regression to pre-industrialized society is all but impossible at this point because of the mass production of books. Even if we nuke ourselves to the stone age, there's multiple libraries in every town that explain in detail how to rebuild every aspect of civilization.

Shorewall

2y↑5

Yeah, it might look like the Fallout series for a time, but tech would still be everywhere, and that would inspire people to look into it.

-[Unit-49]-

2y↑3

You have a unique perspective, that is well versed, and well researched. Appreciate your contribution to future speculation. Even though your currently limited in the extent of your knowledge on all things, we all are, you still have a far further grasp then most.

Bud G

2y↑3

Your best yet. Lots of thought provoking concepts here. Good trend analysis. It used to be that people were unpredictably predictable. That seems to be narrowing a bit now. But what goes on in the shadows or ignored in the light of day weighs heavily on predictions. You seem to have much more flexibility and humility towards the what if. Keep doing what you're doing.

ViperZang

2y↑4

So you always talk about the religiosity of civilizations, but I'm curious how do you define a religion? What are the guidelines, in your opinion, that a religion needs do be "good" for a society? Also thoughts on possible aspects of religions that don't include supernatural elements?

IntoTheUnknowN

2y↑228

Been with you since 15k subs and it gives me faith in humanity seeing how quickly you've grown.
Keep digging and asking questions, you inspire many of us to do the same.

Hector Medrano

Yeah I remember when the channel was only at around 67k subs.

Awsome

2y↑2

i was there too!

currahee!

2y↑13

holy fuck I never looked to see how many subs he has. He's at 400k? i swear i remember seeing like only 20k

Whatifalthist

2y↑54

Thanks so much for being here for the long ass ride

David R. Lentz

1y↑3

As a Star Trek (TOS) fan, an amateur social scientist, and one hoping for extreme longevity, I long have been wondering what societies would rise out of ours 10,000 and 100,000 years from now.

Nathan Wilson

2y↑6

While I don't always appreciate some of the humor, I do enjoy some interesting geopolitical speculation. Thank you for another video. It's going to be interesting to see how Africa develops over the next century.
God be with you out there everybody. ✝️ :)

Dan Fournel

2y↑2

Love your content! However the only issue I have with this particular video is that there is no discussion about continental and global based systems (political, social, and religious) that will come into affect over the next few centuries based on long term trends towards increasing larger social political entities as well as advanced technology making it easier to coordinate social, political, and religious ideas across the world as shown over the past 50-100 years. I agree that societal collapse is likely over the next few decades but then the trend is toward continental and then global communities over the next few centuries not more country-specific entities. What some modern geopolitical pundits fail to realize is that yes while hegemonic states do collapse and are replaced later by other states, these entities have become incrementally larger over time ie. tribe, city state, regional kingdoms, multinational empires, nation states, European Union, etc over the span of tens of thousands of years. For example while the European Union might collapse, it is also possible it will eventually reform into something more democratic and akin to an early North German Confederation prior to the creation of the German Empire. Or perhaps it will resemble the transition from the old Swiss Confederacy to the Swiss Federal constitution of 1848 after the Sonderbund War in 1847. In other words, war will undoubtedly sow the seeds for rebirth and transformation over the coming 200 plus years. Let us not forget that people are increasingly viewing them-self as global citizens across the world and not just in the West however this process is not even nor even quick. Have a great day!

chuck norris

Fuk the new world order

S Moore

2y↑4

Your work is always so fascinating, agree or disagree, I always learn something and fond food for thought, I do find I often agree on a large number of the areas, so there is that too, but like your description of betting against chthulu rather than god!God!! Very well said sir!! Im far from a genius as well, I just make the best guess I can with the info at hand. Your guesses sound very close to how I think. I really enjoy your videos. Keep up the great work!!

JOE

2y↑91

Despite many disagreements with this guy, as long as you are interested in History and geopolitical, we have to admire his well knowledge of things.

Orange Soda

2y↑3

@JellyAntz pre-modern African states participated in slavery because there was nothing else as profitable due to geography and disease. Tbh it didn’t matter which particular state engaged as the Europeans and Muslims were the only ones that profited in the long term, and facilitated the trade to a larger degree than pre-colonial times.

If one African state fell, another would just establish and continue the slave trade.

F FLS

@yeekthoven what about china

raidermaxx23

2y↑2

what disagreements? Im not familiar.. he seems a little suss tho

yeekthoven

2y↑4

@J non ya yea especially how he talks of Africa. He doesn’t acknowledge that Western European countries such as France and Great Britain still puppeteer many West and Central African countries. It’s the reason why the currencies of many African countries are “francs”, because they economy is controlled by French banking, etc. That’s also the reason behind a lot of civil wars and conflicts, because the government’s are led by officials bribed and corrupted by the Western European countries that control them. The fall of Western European civilization will lead to changes in African civilizations that as of right now are nearly impossible to predict.

J non ya

2y↑5

pretty sure he just looks the stuff up in relation to the video. all his scripts read like hes reading off of something and has no outside knowledge of....

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Jakub Korzeniowski

2y↑1

"Eastern Europe's artistocracies and intellectual abilities have always surpassed their actual economic abilities"

While I, as a Polish dude, feel flattered to be called smart, your videos definitely need sources in the description. When you talk about history that you base your predictions on, how do we, your subscribers, distinguish between your personal opinion/conjecture, and a fact?

Chris Ahearn

1y↑12

I feel like Botswana could also become the epicenter of the south African civilization you describe, considering how economically stong it is compared to it's neighbors

Chris Ahearn

@Dude la Dude as long as their economy countinues to punch above it's weight compared to it's neighbors, the future certainly seems bright. However, it all depends now on how bad things get due to the lack of fertilizers and grain imports due to the russo-ukranian war.

Benjy Brasington

I have thought about this as well

Dude la Dude

Honestly I think you could be right. In a world where the power difference changes. I could see Botswana being a strong point in a new civilization. They are generally different than a lot of the states surrounding it. It will depend on what happens on the continent and in their own borders though, but it is interesting to think about.

skyeparker

2y↑3

This is easily and by far the most important youtube channel in my life. These videos mean so much to me. Thank you for changing the way I think about the world and inspiring me to work toward a greater future.

MO BO

1y↑2

The anglosphere already exists. USA, Canada, australia, new Zealand and uk are already pretty close allies. If they united they would control the majority of the worlds land mass, fresh water, resources, etc and a new frontier into space would keep things stable for a long time

buddermonger2000

2y↑301

I think it's also worth noting that for the Anglosphere, with their openness, technical and maritime prowess, and shared language that the Anglosphere is poised to become a civilization state much like China is today. It's a lot easier to maintain an empire when your People can easily traverse it and speak the same language which is exactly the situation it finds itself in today. The only other major language it is developing is Spanish (in a rather poor geography might I add) which will just make itself easy to integrate into and tie another continent to it at the hip for it to draw from as well as give space to improve.

buddermonger2000

@Aleks Vos Isolation, while being a factor in very conservative languages, are not at all a guarantee given that some radical departures came from isolated languages.
While greater volume of written and unregulated communication, you do not actually see that much of a radical change in language evolution. What you see is the meshing of many distinct varieties of English and thus seeing a much more standardized form of English with the only differences largely just due to cultural context in certain settings.
Also... while centralized institutions preserve languages, you've never been able to preserve the auditory (and most important) versions of the language before and that's something you completely fail to acknowledge.
And while the differences aren't the same in Anglosphone countries, they are still linked among the English language and thus really aren't in any position to really separate and you will likely soon start seeing those languages start coming to the largest standard.
And while language will change when people are free to speak it, people will most often match the language they hear growing up. So if you raise them with older varieties you will slow that down. And that is possible now since we can now record those varieties and play them for as long as we have a mechanism to do so.

Aleks Vos

@buddermonger2000 No, no, just wrong conclusions mate. Internet, the unprecedented variety of audio and visual materials coupled with its higher than ever before production pace, the greater volume of written and unregulated communications between people will accelerate the language evolution, not slow it down. It’s the isolation or strict and centralised, powerful institutions that preserve the historic features of a given language making it stable and unchanging.

Right now people develop, on the contrary, a lot of changes to their speech every other day. And these alterations aren’t the same everywhere in the anglophone countries, which holds true for any other language union. When people are free to speak how they see fit, it’s inevitable their speech will be changing and evolving and their kids will adopt it and expand upon it as well.

I think you’ve mixed up language extinction and language evolution which are connected, yet distinct topics

Unknown

@James Furey my guy thinks that Ireland is going to become stronger than England 😂😂😂

Pio

1y↑2

@Calzabbath The author of this video seems to have no idea Latin culture originates in Europe. A strange Yank community, with a few English desperately hanging on.

Pio

1y↑1

@chris Ireland is not a "little brother". It's Celtic and European. It resisted Anglo Protestant hegemony in the 16th and 17th Centuries, and continues to resist the modern brain dead formulation of Brexiteers. The Irish have had enough of genocide, and settler colonialism from the British, it's over.

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Hypnotic Moai

2y↑6

34:30 Alaska would not be the idea place to launch spacecrafts from. If you take a look at all launch platforms across the globe, they always tend to be as close to the equator as possible, additionally with plenty of uninhabited space to the east of the launch sites. Long story short, it’s much more efficient to launch rockets eastward and from the equator. And unless future tech makes these differences negligible, I don’t see Alaska housing launch sites.

jack nolan

2y↑2

Dude that was really, really incredible. I haven't enjoyed a video like that in some time. Well done and fascinating. I think the world will end next year with World War 3, but the aliens that land afterward will hopefully create a new human civilization for us. Good job pal

lhp

2y↑2

Just by looking at the thumbnail map, I get a strong feeling that this is going to be a very USA-biased view. Judging from the last century from a Danish vantage point, the US influence on Europe is very overestimated, by both sides even. The "grades" presented for 2020 at 00:03:10 may fit USA, but not really Europe. As for the map, I wonder why Finland, the Baltic states, including Poland and northern Germany, and BeNeLux aren't included. (But maybe there's an explanation for the map later.)

lhp

2y↑1

00:11:18 "Americans care about little east of this line since their ancestors didn't come from here" is a strong contestant for the award for dumbest sentence I have heard or read today.

Exposing Proxy Stalking Organized Harassment

1y↑3

This "what if" future history analysis is very well done. It is very interesting. 👍

NeonBunnies

2y↑243

15:29 It's also important to remember that the inability for African societies to organize meant the European and Muslim powers could play them against each other. In addition, as before the Industrial Revolution, the only way to invent and produce goods was with sheer population size, which wasn't possible when every civilization was constantly killing, enslaving and then selling each other.

Jason Haven

1y↑1

@Network Nomad What? That isn't true and incredibly racist to say

Eno

1y↑2

@Victorian Reactionary have you heard of cluster bombs ? Or modern military tactics?

Jason Haven

2y↑6

@NeonBunnies You said African societies, I provided you examples of African societies that thrived. Unlike many of your Muslim "powers", Ethiopia wasn't colonised and has been and continues to be an independent civilisation for thousands of years.

NeonBunnies

2y↑2

@Jason Haven the rest of Africa?

Jason Haven

2y↑3

Ethiopia? Somalia?

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Alexandre Bretel

2y↑5

The video is really interesting, although it does not address the elephant in the room, namely the replacement of European populations by African populations (and even from the Indian subcontinent in the case of the UK). This will have major consequences for future civilisations

Shorewall

If Africa starts starving because of deglobalization, then a massive migrant tidal wave will occur, which will require Europe to either militarize and protect their borders or perish.

M L

2y↑4

Been waiting for a deep future video, nice! Understandable it virtually impossible to project that far, but so interesting to think about

Jayden Millett

2y↑6

You should do more videos on the space civilization predictions , those are very interesting

Shalashaska

1y↑1

This channel has hit a new level recently. Very very good stuff.

Wesley Rampersad

2y↑2

I don't know about the others but I can say that it is spot on with regards to India and the Hindus. The Hindus see science as a confirmation of most of their beliefs and therefore love science. In fact things like people experiencing time differently and multiple universes are covered in Hindu scriptures.For Hindus, yoga is above enhancing the mind and body therefore Hindus will view genetic engineering is another tool of achieving this. Hindus do not see their scriptures as inerrant and in fact expect that the meaning of scriptures will change and eventually be lost so they are open to new knowledge. This knowledge does not need to come from God but enlightened individuals since each being is seen as inherently divine. However for Hindus, beliefs must be questioned, scrutinized, challenged and not imposed. Like stated in the video, Hinduism is about the individual even though Hindu society is collective and this will be appealing for both the individualist or the collectivist. Also, with education, the caste system will breakdown. Ironically, the caste system in India was entrenched by progressives, socialists, secularists and atheists to prevent a unified Hindu identity from rising in India. The current leader of India is from the lower caste and he is uniting Hindus irrespective of castes. Finally, Hinduism's core message has never changed regardless of how many scriptures or enlightened individuals come and go. The question for me is: will I see an individual rising in my lifetime to create a new Indian civilization???

AmNotHere911

2y↑1

I would say Quigley's books has it's strengths as well as it's weaknesses. Pro: When Quigley's describing the machinations of the financiers class pre/post-WW1 and interwar years. Con: Quigley's description of the German staff system, of the Ottoman empire and other military history related areas is superficial and simplistic. On the whole Tragedy and Hope is brilliant. Up there with Lewis Mumford's book on Technics of Civilization.

The DORUK

2y↑13

I am seriously suprised Whatifalthist never mentioned potential of genetical engineering and manupilation and thus rise of neohumans and or new human species and subspecies

TheSwedishHistorian

he did when talking about india

Nathan

"The Anglos" is a fascinating concept indeed. I also think a Martian civilization is highly likely. I imagine the most intelligent and intrepid peoples colonizing Mars and creating an intellectual and highly egalitarian society, but I also imagine them being less physically capable. Just a civilization of nerds.

Sniped The Sniper

2y↑316

Hey, I think it would be a good idea if you made a video that talked about what effects contact with extraterrestrial civilizations might have on humanity.

Fred McGill

@Scorpixel I agree with what you suggest but in my mind I always go back to Will Smith in "Independence Day " walking out to get the newspaper with the spaceship up in the sky and people losing their mind.

N8zog

2y↑1

@JellyAntz I feel like both humans AND aliens would REALLY try to communicate if the aliens were social creatures. If it's not a social creature, we will both probably have a bad time.

Algorithm Generated Anime Girl

@Jacob No lol. If they are that different, they won't be pathogens. For something to be a pathogen it actually has to be very specifically adapted to your biology, that's why you are covered in viruses and bacteria and yet aren't sick all the time or literally decaying in real time.

Algorithm Generated Anime Girl

2y↑2

@JellyAntz Yes, this is something everyone seems to just breeze over. As it stands we simply can't live in harmony with aliens even if we want to. Their biology isn't likely to function in our climate or atmosphere, and visa versa. We will never interact biology to biology. At most we'll have habitats where you go visit aliens and have a little cultural exchange behind a sheet of glass, but at the same time to simply do this would take years or decades of travel and how many people are going to be willing to spend that much time just to see an alien in person when we have pictures? This doesn't mean that we will go to war with aliens either, in fact, it probably reduces the likely hood of that happening. We will just peacefully avoid one another, and with how vast space is that isn't going to be a problem. We probably won't share much either, as outside of the novelty we won't really have anything to offer to each other in terms of culture or philosophy. Technology and science would be a lot harder to share than people think they would. It's not as simple as "beaming some files" at each other and then suddenly you know how to build fission reactors.

Joss Launico

Naturally, the superior human race will crush the filthy xenos beneath our mighty boot. Then we will usher in a new golden age, a new Imperium of Mankind.

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Tom Foolery

1y↑1

If anyone found themselves interested in the end part of the video about space colonization, then I'd highly recommend checking out Isaac Arthur's YouTube channel.
He goes into a GREAT deal of detail about what that could look like, all while focusing on hard science and known laws of physics.

Are Eia

2y↑1

Andrew Marsh

2y↑2

You keep me hopeful for the future with every video. Can’t wait for the next one😊

DBen's Drawin' Vids

Hey whatif, if you're interested in expanding your ideas of civilizations in space, check out the youtuber arthur isaac. He does futurist content and has dozens of videos discussing the hurdles that space colonists would have to overcome as well as possible solutions.

Luca DeAdam

2y↑126

Ever think about doing a series about what certain countries/the world would look like if certain wars never happened? I'd love to see you do a video about what the world would look like if WWII never happened or if WWI never happened.

Ender weimer

The term atlerternate history he tried that and it sucked I want more medieval America goddammit

ummche14

2y↑1

it’s called what if alternate history whatifalthist for a reason

Tolga Kocakova

ww1 is inevitable. The British-German alliance is a much more realistic alternative scenario.

Chocho Nucho

2y↑9

Those kinda of videos were his early ones. That's literally why he has that name. The channel used to literally be alternative history. The first one I saw was what if the confederates had won the Civil War. That was pretty cool. It's been a few years. He's grown a lot.

He's surprisingly young too.

emZee1994

2y↑11

He's done helps of those, that's literally alternative history and that's why his channel was about originally. Go check his older videos

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TwoJacksAndAnAce

2y↑2

Your videos always seem to first make me depressed about the future and then give me immesurable hope for it, when all signs point to impending global catastrophies and crisis like the bronze age collapse or fall of Rome you think "well thats it, it's over" but then you realize that even back then in the bleakest of circumstances and with less than a fraction of the people, skill and knowledge they survived and came out with band new civilizations and societies that we adrmire to this day, the end will never be the end, just that end while a new begining starts.

Josh

@TwoJacksAndAnAce How does that give you hope 😂 I agree w the first reply that’s depressing asf it’s like basically saying we have to die in order for our great grandkids to be wealthy. Sorry but the hell to that lol

The only way it makes positive sense is if this is the low point of bad times and there’s a golden age ahead of us in 10-20 years. The truth is that the future is like the weather and the stock market, we can’t predict with 100% certainty. There is always something to be positive about because the world isn’t done yet, there’s much to be solved and grow from. There’s a chance that we are about to enter a great age which would be awesome.

TwoJacksAndAnAce

2y↑1

@Simon Petrikov 39 Same but for me it's more that the generation or two before us got all the good shit and fun times with prosperity and now we are the ones growing up in the age where all the shit they did catches up and fucks the world, now they've lived their lives and are just chilling until they croak meanwhile we get to roll in shit during what is supposed to be the best parts of our lives.

Simon Petrikov 39

2y↑2

Well someone who is more an individualist it is a very cold comfort to me because what use is it to me to see humanity have unparalleled prosperity in a few decades if I died a painful death beforehand due to the collapse that created the prosperity

Colton Griffith

2y↑4

I’m sure you’ve thought of this before but I think you should make a podcast where you discus different topics on the future of the world that you predict might or have a possibility of happening I love the videos just wish there was an easier way to listen to your opinions and the way you get your point across

Deaf_Gorilla

Firstly I loved the video, Secondly as I am Swiss I can tell you yes the chance of a large scale christian revival in Switzerland and Europe as a whole is most likely not going going to happen. I think for some nations in europe I could see this happening for example Spain, Italy, Croatia, and Poland. Now I think we could easily see a loose form of alliance or economic partnership between some of these nations due to their shared catholic beliefs. Italy and Spain tho if we see a revival in their catholic beliefs an alliance will form, croatia might join due to the low numbers of ethnic italians still living in crotia but my family living their still say they hold resentment towards the italians from the past. Poland is just a complete wildcard to be honest

Miki Cerise

Spain has veered far away from Italy. Nearly 40% of Spaniards are atheists or agnostics. The stability of the current order in Spain depends implicitly on secularism, otherwise civil war would start again. Spain is more interested in partnership with Germany than Italy. It's more northern Europeans that don't want anything to do with Spain that makes it impossible. In the short term I would say Iberia will go its own way, and probably look more towards their ex-colonies in Latin America and towards USA than towards Italy. But this will not be based on Christian revival, but more on the opposite - the spread of secularism in Latin America. The more Latin American countries become like Chile, the more the Hispanic sphere will start to become glued together, because the most advanced Hispanic economies are also the most secular. Also, as the US becomes more entwined with Latin America, it is likewise seen as more relatable in Spain, increasing the Atlanticist tendency versus the Europeanist one.

Mark Gonzalez

2y↑3

Great video; thank you for always posting great content!

Peter Marko

2y↑6

I've recently started thinking that if there was someone who could create a synthesis the ideas between Neitzsche and William Blake, you could have something that empowers the individual but still keeps them emboldened by the life they have around them. Doesn't help that Blake was very much in awe of God, while Nietzsche declared the death of him :(

Tor Max

1y↑1

Peter Marko

@lhp I'd be happy to check that name out, thanks for the suggestion. I suppose you're right on Blake, I'm still learning about him. I think what I meant to refer to is his appreciation for the natural world and his frustrations with Newton and scientific empiricism..

lhp

2y↑1

Interesting point. I too see many similarities and compatibilities between Blake and Nietzsche. I think your assessment of Blake's "awe of God" is not quite on point. "... all deities reside in the human breast" seems to me that Blake's idea of "deity" is not that unlike Nietsche's. Both wpuld probanly say that the error isn't the construct itself, but its externalization and institutionalization.
Also, I'd like to suggest another name to add to the mix: Blaise Pascal. (I haven't studied Spinoza yet, but he might also fit in.)

Joe

2y↑2

Great stuff as always! Love your content!

The Lagged Lunatic

2y↑3

I absolutely love videos talking about the future, sad things is we will never know what really happened.

haroon420

This is why I always said as a child, I wish I was born in the future so I know how events occurred 😅

Techno Destination

2y↑2

Love the videos and the comparisons...
But how about a video underlining similarities in Human Civilization...Like Hierarchy, tradition of passing stories etc.

rednekdashie

2y↑1

I enjoy that by the end it rounded off with space conquest. As my brain literally wrote off the aspect of space colonization until you brought it up. I think my brain wrote it off because it became more and more apparent that colonization will be long after I'm gone, I used to hope to live long enough to see us reaching out into the cosmos but the reality of the situation set in for me.

Due to this, if we are to have colonization in space I highly predict it being scuffed as hell. Like ships that are barely able to make the voyages, tech from the modern era still being used, etc. Similar to the comparison of a sloop to a modern battleship.

The idea of humanity vastly changing in transit to places is actually a big feature I enjoy being covered in sci-fi. Heck it's the one thing the really sold me in 40k, the fact that going through imperial space you can find feudal world's that have regressed to castles, knights, etc. And some world's will go through massive changes in what seems like short time in the grand scheme of things. The imperium will check on a planet and find it has nearly nuked itself back into the stone age, then check again in 100 years and it's a feudal world, then check again a couple hundred years later and it's rediscovered space travel and has started colonizing it's local sector. But the big thing which we would see is the fact that an imperial world will send out a distress call, by the time the soldiers arrive on the world it's already entirely fallen. Like there are many times a single world opens up into a civil war, help is called for, and by the time all the paperwork gets through the administratum they have an entire section of the galaxy that's seceded. Especially if we don't research faster propulsion I easily see that being our reality when transit time becomes years.

hugh mungus

I think colonising the oceans and antarctica will happen long before space colonization happens. it just doesn't make financial sense not to expand offworld when theres plenty of space on the planet that is currently uninhabitable.

Miki Cerise

If transit time were years it would not be a big deal. Transit time is years just to get to Saturn. To get to the nearest star it is thousands of years. We'd be looking at colonization of the moon in the short term. Probably when China launches it will prompt the USA to do likewise, then Europe will ask USA to design an arm or a capsule or something so they can get a participation trophy. USA on its own will not do anything, it will be suffocated by its own religious fundamentalists and meander backwards, but with a competitor the USA will drag itself into the future.

Joseph Howard

2y↑3

The eeriest part of all of this is that there’s maybe a 50/50 chance we’ll live to see whether your predictions come true. So much has been figured out, and if aging is somehow brought under control within the next few decades, then literally all we need to do is hold out for a few more decades. Initially, I resigned myself to the notion that I won’t live to see 2600, but then I realized that I actually might. Scary.

Joseph Howard

2y↑2

@Liar With A Gun Well, we’ll have to wait and see. That’s the part that trips me up the most: we’ll have to wait and see if we’ll get to wait and see some more.

Liar With A Gun

2y↑1

I have a gut feeling (so no evidence at all basically) that most or all people alive today will just barely miss out on the immortality train by a couple of decades.

M W

2y↑2

Thank you for the many book recommendations! It's very much appreciated.

secretsauce

2y↑3

I think you neglect Botswana, it's ethnically amd culturally homogeneous. Has a democratic system, has large mineral deposits, and is using a overwhelming portion of its gdp (21%) to invest into education shooting to become a tech hub in decades to come

They've gone from 69%literacy in the 90s.

To 88% today

Captain Maverick

2y↑10

The thought of America becoming more Latin and less European is much more fascinating than scary. As you have mentioned previously, that transition has already begun.

none

1y↑3

@Devious Alemanni learning latin to talk to big booty latinas >>>

Hazzmati

1y↑1

@Devious Alemanni latin americans are based off spanish colonists starting from the 16th century while while European ideas/ideals are based off the Roman Empire that ended in the 5th century. So a complete different group of peoples and a 1000 years apart so yeah different kind of latin. That is why different languages like Italian, Romansh, French and Roman exist because they existed a long time before Spanish colonisation even began.

Devious Alemanni

@Hazzmati in what sense :D
It nearly the same kind of latin.

Hazzmati

2y↑3

@Dolphine Achonga different kind of latin

Dolphine Achonga

Modern Europe was built on latin foundations, so it's really not much of a departure. Unless they revert back to their Celtic, Viking,Germanic and Gallic roots.

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david cunningham

Quigley was a genius but I had never heard of him till now. Thanks for this brilliant video!

Ed Rosh

1y↑1

I love this channel. You can just switch the brain off and listen to speculative fiction.

Mark Lewus

2y↑3

if you’re looking for an interesting book about a future state of civilization, try “The Second Sleep” by Robert Harris. It’s well worth a read.

Lorenzo Cardenas

Wowwww

Erik Jrn

2y↑3

Apart from a fundamental lack of understanding of technology, economy, religion, geopolitics, a few more things, and the interaction between these, this video wasn't too shabby. In other words, I liked the maps. The most realistic prediction is that Scandinavia will align with the Anglo World (my qualification: I'm Norwegian). The least realistic is that the Anglo World will be successful (my qualification: I'm Norwegian, and Norway is already, largely, a part of the Anglo World).

For one thing, the most vital factor in colonizing space is an ambitious government and a population willing to take risks. The first will remain true for centuries, because Space is so hostile that only very large, very powerful, very organized entities can provide the necessary support structure. Technically, an obscenely powerful, international corporation could take this role, but that would violate the premise of ethnic and geographical civilizations. The development in the Anglo World is opposite to active governance and risk taking. The second will remain true for centuries, because technology that makes Space colonization anything other than a one way ticket, with no hope of return, is so far away, and human presence will always out-compete robotic presence. Humans are expensive to support in Space, but are mentally adaptable, have an all-purpose physiology, are self-maintaining, are self-replicating, are self-motivated and ambitious, have minimal lag in response time, and can't be jammed. Humans willing to take the inherent risks are unbeatable, and will remain so, for a long time.

The best bet for Space colonization is China, which is already in the process of overtaking the rest of the World in technology and wealth, or a Russo-Chinese civilization. China, btw, is a new civilization. The West broke Imperial China, and, after a period of chaos, communist China introduced an entirely new culture, organization, philosophy, etc.. It's no longer communist, but organically transitioning into something else. Authoritarian states can be very stable and lasting, especially when the state and culture are indistinguishable, as Imperial China proved beyond doubt.

Erik Jrn

@Gardor The context here is an AI operating on human behalf, without human supervision. Improvisation in that context means to encounter a situation where the AI doesn't have any data on how a human would respond, and still respond like a human. That can't be done, without running software that's very similar to human "software". You're talking about situations where the AI has enough data to know what a human would do, but that's not improvisation.

What we can get, pretty soon, is AGI that will improvise by doing what an AGI (of that type) will do in such situations. That may be what a human would do, but it may also not be. If it's different, it may be objectively better than what a human would do, but it may also be worse. What it will not be, is a predictably human type of decision. That being the case, supervision will be required. Supervision being required, hours of lag time becomes a major issue. Hours of lag time being a major issue, humans in space becomes a major advantage. Humans in space being a major advantage, having people willing to work under those conditions becomes necessary. China has large numbers of such people. The US doesn't. That's my point, that you're trying to refute.

Note: A computer being Windows compatible is as much about hardware as it is about software. The same is true about an entity being human-like. Our bodies are an integral part of how we think.

Gardor

@Erik Jrn You have one of the weirdest lines of reasoning I have ever seen… You kind of agree with me, but also want to prove me wrong at the same time. Putting words into my mouth that I never used, and making completely strange and incoherent conclusions.

I don't know what your idea of an AGI is, but it must be false. Pick a side, you can't think we will have an AGI and think it won't be capable of improvise… These two ideas stand completely opposite to each other.

I never said, a robot should run human software, it doesn't need to, it can replicate the human behavior perfectly without it.

I'm done with this conversation. This is not arguing an interesting debate anymore, I am just explaining basic concepts. Your understanding is fundamentally crooked. Read up a little. Have a nice day.

Erik Jrn

@Gardor You need to know how the human mind works, in order to create a mind that's like the human mind. This should be pretty obvious. Forget about quantum gravity; this is like saying "you need to know how a Windows compatible computer works, in order to make a Windows compatible computer". We don't need to know how a Windows compatible computers works in order to make another type of computer, though. We'll soon have general artificial intelligence, probably sooner than you think (I believe you said "like 20 years"). However, intelligence like our own, to the extent where sending a robot is like sending a human, is much further away. Human intelligence isn't entirely general; it's also specifically human.

Gardor

@Erik Jrn You keep saying we have to know everything, every last detail to be able to recreate something, but that's simply not the case. You don't have to understand how gravity on quantum scale works to be able to make a computer. Same thing here.

There are so many logical errors and strange lines in this response that pointing all of them out would be an exercise in futility. You are clearly uneducated about the current state of AI.

Erik Jrn

5 More Replies...

Aditya Sanyal

2y↑2

Great video as always! Like I have always commented before, you make the videos I really like to ponder long and hard about! Top marks for highlighting the alt right from my Indian and the Chinese internet spheres, it's imperative to not be bullied by their BS. They are a product of a current form of the state peddling grandiose but ultimately misplaced dreams which ignore ground realities of both countries blatantly. Both have dealt with a massive influx of money into their societies over the past two generations and a heck lot of that has gone into spouting the interests of the groups that have benefited most (mostly the mercantile and bureaucratic class nexus whose control on allocation of resources has given them the power to dictate ideology on the masses). In that way, the media sphere in both nations resembles the US as tools of the economic elite except that America has a strong history of individualism which both my country and China has lacked (for all the assertions of the Eye of Shiva, we must understand that Indian ideologies are led by brilliant, unconventional and individualistic gurus and prophets but the vast bulk of the sheeple stick to the CliffNotes version of what they have said in it's philosophical entirety; the massive population size might have something to do with it!)

As an addendum to your projections, would you also posit a French led continental Europe centered on the Paris-Barcelona-Northern Italy triangle? A Mediterranean world premised as a nexus point between Africa (with its growing potential) and the Anglosphere of Northern EUropean and American interest does have some credence given that the French have shown the bureaucratic and financial prowess to defend the remnants of their Empire in West and Northern Africa that they maintain through control over the means of production?

Your hypothesis on Eastern Europe is brilliant to say the least! As a tripoint of ideologies, it is least equipped to resist outside influences and thus most likely to be the place where they violently clash, create crises after crises and thus the intellectual turmoil that often leads to far reaching ideological development. One could say Britain and Northern Europe fulfilled that role as the present Anglosphere (Low and Scandinavian countries, northern Germany, Britain, North America and Australia/NZ) spread across the Atlantic and Pacific as the world grew in size and potential for them while the continental Europeans stagnated because their ideologies bent them towards stagflation based on bragging rights and very little else besides (something you have talked about a lot too!). Maybe it is post factum rationalisation but the areas defended by America during WWII append largely to these areas, places which have abiding links with both Britain and America as sources of immigration while America was being settled continuing forward into present day ( I for one have noticed how much Australian immigration to America for work is ignored in its entirety in order to maintain the facade that there\s a British monarch and not Jefferson on the Australian banknotes! Australia has been economically an American colony from the start of the twentieth century just as the Anglo-sphere in Europe has become from the post WWII period until now!)

Cyberpunk for East Asia (as if present landscapes don't showcase that enough there already!) and a biotic (politically, not technologically speaking!) technocracy for the Indian subcontinent is what I can foresee, given that East Asia has set itself up and probably will remain the Anglosphere's strongest trading partner whereas my subcontinent in the South is connected by hook or crook to the Old World disorder that threatens to wash over us. India hasn't done enough to detach economically from the Old West to escape the consequences of that and unless that changes and we rework our economy to be relevan to the Pacific RIm, I see no way of India surpassing or equaling the West or the Far East. Today's bureaucratic-mercantile ruling nexus finds it convenient and intellectually fashionable to laugh at our 1947-1990s autarkic socialism as some jaded communist fallacy but historically, India has been and tends to fall back onto domestic consumption inevitably as global trends change. Our huge population and more than sufficient resource base tends to lull that kind of behaviour and society, while changing proportionately to other civilizations in the Axial age, the middle ages and so on, also has tended to create some very peculiar manifestations which try to reconcile the highly individualistic inner life with the highly collectivist social structures present here since forever. What that will lead to a few hundred years from now is anybody's guess, but I often tend to look back to something a school friend of mine discussed with me very many years ago on something totally unrelated. There used to be this Flash Gordon-esque serial called Captain Vyom (Captain Sky!) on the national broadcaster in the late nineties and it used to rile me up because there seemed to beonly Indians in space managing the planet. Where did all the Whites and Easterners go, was what I would question my friends..well, this friend, he came up with the theory that these guys, with their even then clearly visible technological superiority, just went away farther into space while we were left behind managing the solar system!! As the last Eurasian culture that has not had its nature worship overlaid by Semitic differentiation of the divine and the mundane as it has in the Anglo and Islamic sphere, I think any Indic civilization of the future would cling to the planet due to the strong element of that tradition and tend to be earth centric unlike the Chinese and Anglo spheres which have practiced vassalage and colonization concepts from the get-go....

Aditya Sanyal

@Max Walker Thanks!

Max Walker

Great analysis mate

hurhur sjarf

K F

Awesome job, great research. I really enjoyed this. My two cents:

1. Think the take on the US is a bit too rosy TBH. Using the criteria you used I can see your US points a bit more, but facts on the ground point to a few driving criteria not mentioned here. If we factor in technology, not specifics but the idea that tech will drive competition, dominance and access to resources, cooperating nations that can form a civilisation stand to a better chance at succeeding. The EU is by far the most ambitious and the most democratic and successful version of a "superstate" yet tried. I cannot see how the US makes it into the next phase of history as a state if cooperation amongst unequal nations is a must. the big ego nations like America, China, Russia, Iran are too entrenched and stubborn. From what I see now, I don't see how the US is still one country in the next 12 - 15 years. I'm from Canada, and while superficially it appears we are close to the US culturally, when you dig deeper into more substantive issues like philosophical, political and constitutional concepts, we are much more aligned with modern European concepts; and we are moving further away from an America-centric ideal. Small and middle powers will see an EU arrangement of states much more appealing than a US domination arrangement.

2. If resources are a major factor in civilisational development, and if water becomes the next new most important resource as many expect it will, the Brazil, Russia, Canada and Congo--or those regions or whomever controls them, have a huge advantage.

Evbb Jones

2y↑36

Love your content Rudy! I get a lot of my reading recommendations from your content. Would love it if you could take the books you mention in the video's and lis them in the video description for easy reference. I'm use to pausing your video's to soak in all the information on screen, not a huge deal. But would definitely enjoy that convenience.

CplHotPockets

As a proffesional Romanian i can definitely agree with the upcoming collapse of eastern europe because of the demographic collapse and lack of long term hope or a major unifying factor. However there is some slight hope mostly due to the poles and hungarians reasserting their ideals which were surpressed by the communists, and national pride for finally being free, mixed with proximity to western Europe, giving them a technological and financial advantage that bulgaria or ukraine dont have. The key to eastern europes survival is a powerful resurchange of Christianity, unifying and empowering the people to believe in something greater and cure the nhilistic mindset, while also fixing the demographic crisis. That will ultimately decide if this unique and beautiful area will survive, and keep the turks lut, or become the newest layer on the ash heep of history.

John Smith

2y↑2

"Humans with psychological certainty in their worldviews psychologically grope towards complete certainty". I really like that phrase. Any thoughts on how it may apply to you a little bit? Because you are awfully set about your opinions presenting it as the truth.

Brother Jay

2y↑1

One thing that could change the game is better fertilizer like the how Amazon Indigenous were able to grow lots of food in poor rainforest soil, but sadly that secret died with them

Ben Seiken

2y↑11

I hope you're right about the Americas integrating further under US leadership. I grew up in a border state and the hardest working, most resilient people I knew were Hispanic. I feel like it would be a very symbiotic relationship, with the Latin countries giving the US a strong work ethic, family values, and morality, and the US providing economic and administrative prowess.

I have never understood why we continue to support the decrepit old fools in NATO. I guess I understand backing the UK, we've been close since WW2 and it's kind of like supporting your aging parents. But continental Europe hates the US and appears to forget that there would have been no post-war recovery without the US, and, like you've said many times, their standard of living would be much lower without the US Navy forcing trade lanes open.

In inflation adjusted dollars if the US spent just 1/10 of what we've given to subsidize the Euros (economically, militarily, and just effort and attention) on developing Mexico and Central America, I would bet that there would no longer be an immigration crisis. And unlike the Euros, where the US intervenes to save them from themselves at a cost to the US, the US repeatedly destabilized our neighbors to the South for our own benefit. Our southern neighbors are Americans too and it's time we start acting like it.

Defective

2y↑29

Ive been using Superorganism theory a whole ton in the last 3 years to try to get better ideas about how different power groups interact by treating them like meta animals of sort.

In that respect, I've been referring to what lies ahead of us in the next 200 years as a Civilizational Mass Extinction event. Just as with biological organism mass extinctions and the explosion of evolutionary traits following them, we often seem to have evolutions of our organizations following CMEs.

Just interesting ideas, nothing declarative really meant. Im still exploring all of the ramifications of this way of thinking.

Macky Cabangon

2y↑9

@mrvwbug44 as an eastern european I can confirm that our 'civilization' would be the first to become 'civilizationally dead' as all the signs are there. Russia's war backfiring hard, lack of fertility in the whole area, mass migration away from eastern europe (look at the balkan diaspora in west europe, esp germany). All this shows that Eastern Europe as a civilization/culture sadly has only little hope (if any) of long term survival.

mrvwbug44

2y↑5

Contrary to the fears of nationalists, most immigrants assimilate within 1-2 generations. The kids of immigrants basically always learn the language of where they immigrated to, and the grandkids of immigrants have usually fully assimilated into their new culture.

mrvwbug44

2y↑4

Interesting idea. I do expect fewer civilizations going forward, less from collapse and more just from increasing globalization. You can't really have an insular homogenus society in the 21st century. The evolution of civilzations will basically be a popularity contest in a future of likely dramatically more movement of people. The freedom, democracy and opportunity of the west still holds a lot of appeal to people from much of the developing world, and the west will have to dramatically increase immigration in order to prevent population crash. I suspect eastern europe will be the first region to become more of a diaspora than a region.

Michael Shannon

2y↑1

The juxtaposition between peoples morals and technological advancement to me are the 2 biggest cultural dynamics we face. Our moral code is the very gel that keeps things together, that allow us to navigate the world with a level of ease, anticipation and predictable outcomes. If our morals start to change we will see more and more debauchery, murder, public acts of insanity (social media has been the catalyst so far), complete collapse of social fabric where things like respect and decency will begin to decline.

Technology will attempt to soothe us with more advanced medications, particularly psych meds, causing havoc to our bodies and offspring. More advanced means of communication will render a huge part of the population as hermits, working from home or not (basic social income) only further adding to mental health epidemics. Everyone will take form of medication but it wont be called as such 'medication' and they will be branded like something more like vitamins but are more akin to actual meds to normalize the idea. Once everyone is rendered 'ill' in some way there will be huge dam bursts all over the developing world. Parenting will be done by apps and AI, virtual reality will be mainstream and we will slowly grow weary of life itself.

I know it sounds doomsday but there is no real future other than technology. There is no ideal world that anyone could truly get behind and those that could wouldnt be able to sell it. We are looking at a quick shift thanks to the internet, science and the fall of old beliefs and customs.

CODELL

1y↑2

Eastern Europe is tough but unlike western Europe the East seems to be waking up to the self destructive policy's the has been destroying the west for the last 6 or 7 decades, keep up the great work, I am enjoying your videos even when I disagree with some of your analysis

Marvin66

I dont think the West is destroying itself
It is all relative .
Look at what happened to the BRICS over the last ten years.

chimmy

Interesting presentation!
I think it would be better if you spoke just a little slower and held the images on the screen a little longer so that we have time to read the captions and process what we are looking at without having to pause so much.

Dacian Peride

2y↑4

As a guy from Romania, you're totally right about Eastern Europe. People feel like they have no direction, the majority of young folks like me don't believe in the orthodox church and the governments here are corrupt, selfish and incompetent. Romania lost 5 million people since the revolution, all of them leaving for Western countries. I'll also leave Romania this winter and go to work in Germany and hope I won't have to come back, this place is doomed.

Bartek B

Germany is truly failed society you will see how Romanian values are better when you will live some time in germany

Weston Meyer

2y↑2

Germany is even more doomed

Dacian Peride

2y↑3

@John malik My uncle too is from Syria, he married my aunt, though he came in Romania in the 90's. It's pretty sad what happened and keeps happening in the Middle East. I watched the documentaries from before the major powers got involved there and islamists took power, used to be a beautiful place... I'm glad you made out that kill zone, my friend. As-Salamualaikum!

John malik

2y↑1

I´m syrian who lives in the usa. The sad thing about syria is that syria is getting radicilized instead of secularized. Back in the 80s most woman in cities didn´t wear the hijab(islamic headcovering) but now the majority does. It´s as almost syria is getting more religious and romania less. We´ve basically become america´s and russia´s playground since 2011. In a sence i understand how you feel, that there is no hope left in your native country. And in syria´s case this sadly might be true but i feel like romania might make it. Most problems are created by corrupt politicians. If romanian politicians cared about the youth than we wouldn´t see this huge migration. I love the balkans and eastern europe so it would sadden me to witness the downfall of the region :(

Fredinno

2y↑3

Space colonization only works well for equatorial nations due to launch vehicles relying on using the Earth’s equatorial spin to reach space more cheaply. Alaska and Australia will never be the main hubs for space colonization.
Even things like Orbital Rings tend to work better for equatorial nations than polar ones.

However, the melting of the Arctic could allow the rivers of the Arctic to be useful for commerce, and people could slowly thaw the permafrost using solar mirrors into new habitable lands.

William Christy

2y↑1

@Fredinno I don't disagree with any of that.

Fredinno

2y↑1

@William Christy Alaska isn’t.
And honestly, it doesn’t change geopolitics the way he thinks it will. The US has decent access to the equatorial band. It’s Europe and Russia that have more problems getting to space (unless they reconquer Central Asia- Russia only launches from Baikonur because of the Soviet/National Security legacy.

William Christy

2y↑1

Did you not look at the map when he mentioned Australia? North Australia is near the equator.

Geopoliticus

2y↑2

Very interesting. I’d suggest you look into World Systems theory, particularly the 5000 year world system school : WST views on core-periphery shifts in the global economic system supplement Quigley’s ideas well.

Spectonimous

2y↑1

The way that you namedrop so many books so frequently definitely warrants multiple affiliate links from these authors because many of us do plan to read them.

Kwstas Vagias

This is an interesting topic and the video was quite entertaining.
I just found a specific part rather confusing, in many of these maps of future eastern Europe Greece is projected to fall to Islamic countries, while i know that a lot can happen in the span of 1000 years i just can not see how a nation which is in NATO, a part of European Union and also Orthodox in religion will be subjugated by east/Islam without the third world war happening, and if it does happen then i still can not see how east will win these territories against the west.

Mason Handel

2y↑29

I appreciate the hell out of your intellectual honesty, well-roundness, and the humility to acknowledge that what you are saying isn't prophecy, but well-informed speculation on the future of politics, societal organization, and civilization in general. You obviously care about the truth and the butterfly effect of the current political, economic, social, and religious state of different countries. Keep it up!

Ben Monroe

One of the coolest things about the far future is we're likely to see the number of nations grow into the trillions as space habitats become independent nations.

Anita Thakur

That's the thing that scares me

2A42

2y↑4

A spacefaring civilisation might resemble a traditional seapower (eg. Ancient Athens, USA, UK), Because space is vast and hard to cross, and planets and star systems are fairly isolated within space.

JEF_300

2y↑6

For the record, despite all the doom and gloom of his works, I think Zeihan agrees with you that things will get better in a few decades. It's just that he writes about the near future, not the good times that come after. In particular, he's very bullish on the USA, often saying that while the next 5-10 years will be rough, the end result will be one of the greatest golden ages in all of human history.

JEF_300

@Walther Bremen Well... until that changes, sure. But historically, that sort of thing tends to not be sustainable.

Walther Bremen

The US is doomed. Political paralysis and institutional inertia prevent it from ever implementing any meaningful structural reforms. Therefore, it will only continue to decay at an accelerated rate.

hugh mungus

The US in a few decades will be unrecognisable both demographically and politically.

Miki Cerise

2y↑1

The US is taking the right steps now to have a good decade or two. I don't know about a great golden age, but things are looking up for them, yes, assuming they are not internally politically destabilized.

Vasco Pimenta

2y↑2

Regarding your map at timestamp 15:14, may I suggest reading of the book 1491? It discusses among many other things population estimates in pre-columbian Americas.

R CHA

2y↑4

And this is why I always advocated NOT putting kids on ADHD drugs ....the artificial brain stimulation will result in someone going online and opening up a YouTube channel, calling themselves Whatallthishitis and run a million miles a second to oblivion and beyond and next thing you know all the other kids start to pick up on that and eventually an entire generation is marching in to "the future" like idiots banging on their drums and we're all f ck ed !!!

F FLS

R. Lee

2y↑1

The video touches on it briefly, famine. Fresh water and fertile land will determine which countries/nations develop in a sustainable way.
Any country/nation not having fresh water and fertile land will have a very difficult development, as those countries/nations with those resources will not necessarily accept sharing or selling their resources.
Conflicts/wars will be waged on access to water and fertile land.
China is already making significant investments acquiring fertile land and resources in Africa, not necessarily to feed Africans, but to export food and minerals back to China.

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