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B1 Planetary Invasion
No Assembly Firm Lyrics


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Most interesting comments from YouTube:

Joe Lobsterman

One major problem with this scenario is that there is an assumption that US ships, over the horizon, would be vulnerable to attack. Not so. The US would not need to pull all the way back to Hawaii. They could remain underway in the Indo-Pacific Region. China would have nearly an impossible time trying to target and hit a moving target sailing in the ocean, over the horizon, beyond China's shores.

Keep in mind that attacking a NATO military asset, whether they are in a NATO country or not, would fall under the "attack on one is an attack on all" concept. If China attacked the United States, either at a base or a US naval ship (Considered sovereign US territory just like any real estate in the US), they would qualify themselves to having the NATO countries declare war on them.

I was involved with over the horizon tracking while in the Navy; China would have a hard time hitting a ship over the horizon

Also, the US would know if the Chinese are deliberating on making their moves towards invading Taiwan and other moves that could threaten the US. Ships would have sortied out of their bases and into the open ocean long before China launches their first salvo. Other military assets would be fortified or dispersed before the first Chinese missile salvo. Once US ships slip over the horizon, the Chinese would have to launch drones and other surveillance assets far beyond their shores, over the ocean to try to locate the US ships. This puts these assets at risk of getting blown out of the sky.

China would simply have no luck finding and hitting a US ship well over the horizon. In fact, if your scenario were to play out, none of the missiles would find their targets out in the ocean and would end up crashing into the ocean without finding a ship.

You think that aircraft would be parked when the US gets intelligence that the Chinese are about to attack? NOPE! Those aircraft would be ready to take off at a moment's notice the moment China fires its first volleys. This state would already be achieved when movement on the Chinese side indicate that an attack is imminent.

China, with similar corruption issues, would perform similarly as the Russians

Also, keep in mind that the problems that degraded military hardware performance on the Russian side would be similar to what the Chinese military would experience. They face similar corruption problems that impact the quality of military equipment. Don't be surprised if the Chinese miss nearly all of their land targets. Neither the Russians nor the Chinese appear to match the United States when it comes to precision strikes, let alone long-range precision strikes.

The Chinese conducting realistic training? Absent combat experiences, this is going to be hard to design and carry out. The videos I've seen, of Chinese doing their military exercises, shows that they are not that much different from their Russian counterparts. Their efforts at a combined arms arrangement is going to provide similar results to that of what the Russians are attempting to do in Ukraine. It has not worked out in real life as it has on paper. The Chinese do not train as aggressively as the US does, and appear to conduct their training during "training seasons" during the year. The US and its allies conduct training throughout the year.

Massive Chinese KIA + Results of 1 child policy = Rapid Chinese Citizen opposition to the war

One psychological impact that massive Chinese KIA would have is the "end of line" for many families. Many of those in the ranks are from one child families. In reality, a conflict that involves the US is going to spike the KIA among the Chinese service members into the 10s of thousands at the very beginning of the conflict. Also, the Chinese wading through hundreds or thousands of their dead comrades is going to wreak havoc on these young Soldier's minds.

Keep in mind that not too long ago, one of their generals complained about the masturbation problem happening among their ranks, and how this was contributing to major disciplinary problems. Many of the Chinese military troops were also spoiled growing up, being that they were the only children. One nickname given to them is "Little Emperors." Could you imagine how seeing massive KIA among their comrades would have on them after spending most of their lives being pampered and spoiled?

The US Navy trains to fight "standoff" battles with the enemy, and would be involved from the beginning

The US Navy, even when I was in from the last part of the Cold War into the first decade of this century, already had long range, standoff, combat against the enemy as part of the doctrine. We trained to engage an enemy that is well over the horizon, beyond visual range, while we were also over the horizon from the enemy. The US Navy would not need to approach Taiwan to take out China's anti-ship systems or China's Navy. Again, like US Air assets, US Naval assets train to fight from a distance in addition to fighting in "line of sight" conflicts.

Take Chinese and Russian weapon performance claims with a grain of salt

One has to take China's, and Russia's claims about the weapons quality of their weapons inventories. We're seeing this with the Russian hypersonic missiles that the Ukrainians shot down. Our counter part to their "wonder" missiles are still in the testing phase, as we're doing the proper steps to bring out the real deal weapon that the Russians and Chinese brag they already have.

The Chinese will need at least three times the number of total defenders on the ground

Also, that 2 million number may be low. In the US Army's Battle Staff NCO course, one learns that the attacker to defender ratio has to be at least 3 attackers to 1 defender. This may be what is needed against the Taiwanese military, but if the civilians join the fight at large enough numbers, that 2 million would be too low a number to maintain.

This scenario, discussed in the video, makes assumptions about what the Chinese military would do in an invasion attempt that are similar to assumptions made about how a Russian invasion of Ukraine would go prior to Russia making the attempt.

Edit: Read this entire post, and thoroughly read every single response in the thread responding to this post, before responding. If you intend to disagree with me, how I responded to others here who disagreed with me, below, is how I intend to respond to you. I've been arguing with people online for almost 20 years as of this edit (July 8, 2023), and have no problems thoroughly, and indefinitely, dismantling the opposition.



wyldhowl

I think a few things are missing from this scenario, or I see it playing out differently.
First, I do not see the opening situation playing out the way this video describes. In such a war, even if the Chinese had the desire to confront the US and invade Taiwan, they are well aware of US military's dependence on satellite & network-centric warfare assets. They cannot match that capability (yet) so perhaps their opening move would be sneakier and target us electronic & apace assets most of all. This could mean the use of an EMP weapon in space, wiping out many satellites, radars, electronic communication networks, etc.; if not some sort of EMP nuke, then perhaps just anti-satellite warfare. (It is worth noting that while the US & Russia had signed all sorts of treaties to prevent deployment of such weapons in orbit, AFAIK China is under no such obligation). Anyways, the point is: the more old-school the kind of warfare, the more the US advantages are negated.As well, submarines would be absolutely critical as a first-strike weapon for the Chinese. US carriers, and their escorts & missile boats would have to be negated quickly. I see that as being done by subs more than air strikes, or at least to damage the US ability to defeat incoming air strikes. (Again, back to the idea of blinding your adversary as the opening move.)

Second of all, the effect of the Chinese-Russian alliance. It's a big deal for China, since the dependence on seaborne oil/fuel is greatly reduced. It's a big deal for Russia because China's technological / weapons development is passing their own. Russia has resources & combat experiences, and believe me the Chinese are observing the Russia-NATO war in Ukraine and learning everything they can from that. As well, if this scenario says that US allies are in the fight, China's allies are jumping in too. Russia and their pacific fleet, especially the subs, are a real blue water naval threat, while China is still developing (rapidly) into one. North Korea will be in the fight if South Korea is (because of US bases there which would have to be knocked out). I doubt either side would respect Japan's desire for non-militarism, again because of the US bases there, and that's even if Japan was willing to tolerate a Chinese move against Taiwan, which it wouldn't. It's more than likely the Phillipines would be pulled immediately into such a war, for the same reasons.
Even hapless North Korea has a lot of subs because of its weird doctrines, and China would not let them remain uninvolved. Maybe the NK navy are not very useful in the sense of meeting their own objectives, but if used like cannon-fodder just to take out US navy ships before dying, imagine how much more the US navy would have to expend in terms of defensive capabilities, maybe wasting too much to defend against the more deadly threats from Chinese and Russian ships. The US-Australia treaties would make Australia a more distant target, but a reliable base for US activities, so let's just say Australia would be in the fight too.
So at minimum, what you would have is a war between China, the US, Taiwan, Japan, Russia, Phillipines, Australia, and both Koreas. Full spectrum war too, not just people flicking tactical missiles at each other to send a warning message. 4 countries involved definitely have nukes and more could get involved. Plus if NATO articles gets invoked, well that ups the game to include Canada, and perhaps the eventual involvement of the UK & French blue water navies (assuming it does not turn into a world war and start involving the other oceans).

Third of all, India & a few other notables. They might be uninterested in taking the West's side over Ukraine, but they do have active territorial disputes with China. Do people think they'd just sit there while the have the chance to oust China's influence from parts of the Himalayas that they consider theirs? I don't. Speaking of others, there's Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia to consider. They're not exactly China's enemies, but China has made some territorial encroachments upon them which they have taken issue with, so there might be some motivation & intrigue for one side or the other to try and get them on-side and in the fight.

China obviously has some ground to make up technologically before it can clash with the US directly. However, people should take heed of just how quickly they are advancing, and in partnership with Russia, learning what it takes to take on the most advanced US/NATO forces. They have clearly the intention of having a blue water navy, including multiple carriers and better subs. They are improving their air force & missile force, & space technology all the time. Who knows where they are on cyber - but clearly they have advanced on that front very quickly, to be the #1 adversary to the US in that realm. China's weakness on fuel resources is alleviated by having Russia as an ally.

I think if China has a big weakness, it is just how openly belligerent Xi Jinping is. He has really awoken the region to the fact that China intends to unleash some sort of aggression, and a more reasonable seeming leader might have been able to build all the same military capabilities, without causing the sort of counter-reaction in the west Pacific. Basically, even if the US were too disinterested to care, China's regional neighbours would still see the need to ally with each other and stop China, and that is Xi Jinping's fault.

From the US perspective, they might actually want a war against China, sooner rather than later. With each passing year, the USA gets more internally divided, ethically ruined, and economically absurd - like a dying roman empire. China has a greater sense of unity and a sense of mission, but it will always be a country that has some long-standing unsolvable problems. It is catching up in some areas, and already equal in some others. If time is not on the USA's side, they will push to start some war that will justify strangling China economically and smashing China's military assets, while they still can. Time should be on China's side, but again, even if China was not a threat to regional peace, Xi Jinping and his actions as leader make it seem that way, so it is becoming a true arms race over there.



All comments from YouTube:

Stinky

Japan thought the same thing"the American public doesnt have the stomach for a prolonged major war" I can assure you, you dont wanna test that

DNihil HEAVY Industries

โ€‹โ€‹@Israel Military Channel I think he's trying to say the opposite that we do have the capability for a prolonged war just look at Afghanistan and Iraq we were at war with them for almost two decades. But I also understand that this won't be a war like Iraq or Afghanistan. It will be closer to WW2 however Japan is building up its forces so they will be good allies against China

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Gregory Bivona

Something you have to also take into account about the US Navy that it seems almost no other Navy does as effectively: it's damage control officers. These men and women can effectively mobilize an entire crew to save ships that otherwise should have sunk to the bottom of the ocean. They are stubborn as hell that their ship will not go down for hours or even days after what would be deemed a critical and catastrophic hit. US Navy ships are also meticulously maintained and are practically guaranteed to have every anti-missile defense fully operational (aka the opposite of the Moskova)

Harsh Wardhan Gunthey

When you have unlimited budget that is what you should get!

Najee Ellis

๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚you know something ๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚ I saw this comment and all of could think about was the naval fire in san diego and how the firemarshal essentially ran off because of the fire and the DCA wasn't even effective

Deltaflot1701

@Najee Ellis Sure, when you're in a maintenance period, with half the crew off the ship to get out of the way of the civilians doing all the maintenance and upgrades to the ship, along with all their support equipment, which gets in the way of normal fire fighting gear and routes. At Sea, when it's you or the fire, it's a different story. don't conflate one with the other

Deltaflot1701

@Harsh Wardhan Gunthey if that were true. after having spent many years on multiple ships and in shipyards, their was never enough money to finish project and maintenance that needed to be done.

Aphrodyte Girl

Japan saw this in WW2 in the US having saved ships anyone else would have scuttled and putting them back in service within days and weeks.

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sliphstream

The first strike would likely be a massive cyberattack on US and allied early detection systems and communications. This would not be easy, however, as cybersecurity is the most highly classified and refined tech that the US military possesses.

Han Huang

China has extreme intelligence and can develop new tech in the near future for a cyberattack

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