OUTBREAK
Various artists [feat. Mylk] Lyrics

Jump to: Overall Meaning ↴ Line by Line Meaning ↴

Light it up

Gonna light it up, light it up, oh
Light it up, light it up, ooh
Light it up, light it up
Causing an outbreak
And turning the li-
We’re going to light it up, light it up, oh

Light it up, light it up, oh

Gonna light it up, light it up, oh
Light it up, light it up, ooh
Light it up, light it up
Causing an outbreak
And turning the li-
We’re going to light it up, light it up, oh
Light it up, light it up, oh
Light it up

Light it up, light it up, ooh
Light it up, light it up
Causing an outbreak
And turning the li-
We’re going to light it up, light it up, oh
Light it up, light it up, oh

Gonna light it up

ooh ooh
Gonna light it up

Overall Meaning

The lyrics to "Outbreak" by Various Artists featuring Mylk seem to be centered around the idea of causing a figurative outbreak or disruption. The repetition of "light it up, light it up" creates a sense of building energy and excitement. The act of lighting something up can symbolize setting ablaze or igniting a spark, suggesting a rebellious or transformative action.

The phrase "causing an outbreak" reinforces the theme of disruption and maybe even chaos. This could be interpreted as a call to action, encouraging listeners to shake things up and make a bold statement. The repetition of this line emphasizes the intensity and urgency of the message being conveyed.

The lyrics also touch upon the idea of turning the light, which could be a metaphor for shedding light on a particular issue or situation. By bringing attention to something, the artists may be advocating for change or pushing for awareness and understanding.

Overall, the repeated refrain of "gonna light it up" suggests a sense of empowerment and determination. It's about taking charge and making a bold impact, even if it means creating some chaos along the way. The upbeat and energizing tone of the song, combined with the repetitiveness of the lyrics, further reinforces the idea of sparking a revolution or a significant change.

Line by Line Meaning

Light it up
Ignite a spark of energy and enthusiasm.

Gonna light it up, light it up, oh
We are determined to create a vibrant atmosphere filled with excitement.

Light it up, light it up, ooh
We will continually amplify this feeling of joy and illumination.

Light it up, light it up
We are focused on enhancing the brilliance around us.

Causing an outbreak
Our actions are instigating a widespread reaction or movement.

And turning the li-
Transforming the surrounding environment into a more lively space.

We’re going to light it up, light it up, oh
Together, we are committed to elevating the energy around us.

Light it up, light it up, oh
We will continue to shine and spread positivity.

Gonna light it up, light it up, oh
We are resolved to keep this momentum going strong.

Light it up, light it up, ooh
Each moment is an opportunity to bring more brightness into our lives.

Light it up, light it up
Let’s keep the flame of enthusiasm burning brightly.

Causing an outbreak
This infectious energy is spreading far and wide.

And turning the li-
Shaping the atmosphere into something exhilarating and transformative.

We’re going to light it up, light it up, oh
We are actively participating in this movement towards greater positivity.

Light it up, light it up, oh
We affirm our intention to keep shining brightly.

Light it up
Ignite and spark creativity and joy.

Light it up, light it up, ooh
Our passion will resonate and uplift everyone involved.

Light it up, light it up
We are consistently pushing for more brilliance.

Causing an outbreak
The impact of our energy is leading to widespread enthusiasm.

And turning the li-
Transforming the ordinary into an extraordinary experience.

We’re going to light it up, light it up, oh
We aim to inspire a collective response of joy and vibrancy.

Light it up, light it up, oh
We celebrate our commitment to illuminate our surroundings.

Gonna light it up
We are poised to unleash positivity and energy.

ooh ooh
A spontaneous expression of joy and excitement.

Gonna light it up
We are ready and eager to ignite this flame within.

Lyrics © Kobalt Music Publishing Ltd.
Written by: Andrew Hu, Yuki Kurihara

Lyrics Licensed & Provided by LyricFind

To comment on or correct specific content, highlight it

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Most interesting comments from YouTube:

@craftie7721

5y↑183

I'd really like to see a large version of this simulation run with parameters close to what we're experiencing in real life. It'll be like looking into the future.

For example:

- 32 "communities", 4 of which will contain central hubs and 4 of which will contain a central market
- 100% are asymptomatic for 3 days; 80% will show symptoms afterwards
- 70% will be quarantined after 1 day of showing symptoms
- The infection goes away after 14 days
- The infection radius is the same as in this video
- Recovered patients are immune to future infections
- 0.005% of people can go into total isolation ("leave the box") per day

- Travel rate between communities is normal (0.2) until a certain threshold is met (in which case, travel rates will go down by 75%)
- Social Distancing rate is low (20%) until a certain threshold is met (in which case, social distancing goes up to 75%, then 95% if things get nasty)
- Infection rate is high (0.2) until a certain threshold is met (in which case, infection rates are cut in half)
- For the first time only, if the number of active cases falls below a certain threshold, travel rates, social distancing, and infection rates go back to normal

- Certain Threshold: 0.5% of the population is infected

NOTE: The virus's actual asymptomatic period can go up to 14 days, and according to zemerick13, the infection can last a lot longer than 14 days.

@alansnyder8448

3y↑1

It would be really good to do this again, looking at how the pandemic played out. For example add in a vaccine that is 90% effective, then a vaccine that is 90% effective but only 50% get it, and compare the spread in those two populations. The add in a vaccine that is 90% effective, but it wears off after say 6 months.

Then one the is 90% effective it wears off after 6 months, but a booster can restore it.

And then our world.
The vaccine is 90% effective it wears off after 6 months, some get boosted and then a new virus appears.

Also simulations were there is a distinction between recovered and dead base on who gets vaccinated.

I'm so tempted to do this myself, but with a computer program, but I'd never do a YouTube video.

@midoris2969

5y↑50

What if you added the role of 'medical staff':

- After a certain threshold, the quarantine box is made.

- Some susceptible dots of different colour are moved to the quarantine box
- They move frequently from one dot to another
- Have a lower chance of getting infected because they have protective gear (but does not mean they are completely safe from the virus)
- Decrease the 'infected' time of the infected dots by a bit
- After the dots recover, they move back into the big society box

- Some of these medical staff stay in the big society box (medical staff not in quarantine areas). They interact in a similar way with other dots but with less protection.
- These non-quarantine hospitals are also centralised areas people go to.

@xxbarry_blyat69xx5

5y↑193

I could 100% see this as being a game where your a government of multiple communities and you have to change you policies to help flatten the curve.

but obviously some people are gonna disobey your rules so you could employ police of some sort and control how strict they are?

and maybe you could have some kind of point system similar to HOI4s political power system where It takes points to enact new policies and different policies help give you more power per month and other drain you power.

also maybe with enough points you could invest In better medicine.

but IDK just an idea that I had.

TBH this sounds like reverse plague INC.

@peterjones3460

5y↑1

Sorry to be so pessimistic .. but i'm so irritated with this idea that WE are supposed solve the problem and ACT upon it.
You want to know what the real.. true problem is that makes all these other factors seem irrelevant ?
Its so hard to get tested !
If you're not in an area where the virus is already doing serious damage.. They wont do it unless you are BRUTALLY ILL.
I want to go post this on every single corona virus video out there because i don't think people really know what is going on.

I am male in early 30s living in the US, small town with only 1 confirmed case so far.
I have GERD but otherwise no major underlying health conditions.
My symptoms :
Dry cough for several days follow by sudden Chest pain & Fever

Local hospital has a big TENT set up in front of the main entrance.
If you have flu like symptoms you may not enter the hospital before being examined in the tent.
I call upfront, speak with the hotline, give them all my symptoms and explain that i am concerned because :
1. I was in the same office a couple weeks as a person who just recently tested positive.
2. I already had the flu.. like a month ago and ive had the flue every dam year its come in season and i never had this kind of pain in my lungs.

They tell me to come by when the TENT opens up ( 09:30am)
They examine me.. do a chest panel ( test for Influenza A & B and other KNOWN respiratory viruses ) and tell me i can go inside where the doctor will need to do an X-RAY and an EKG
I don't have insurance, so i explain that i did not come to get treated, i came to get tested.
Their reply : You do not meet the "Risk Factors " and i can leave but i need to sign something saying i left against medical advice.

I tell them that i don't want to go inside and rack up thousands of dollars in hospital bills i just want to know if i have the virus so i can STAY AWAY FROM EVERYONE.
They tell me.. stay away from everyone anyway for at least 2 weeks.

I do a little reading and see that people suggest you see your family doctor.. get a referral and then you can get tested.
Family doctor is booked solid.
Call half a dozen other places - Not taking new patients.

Next step : Physicians immediate care (walk in clinic).
At these places you pay a lot just to be seen ($250) but they have some kind of rule in place where your bill can never exceed $500, no matter what kind of tests they do ( including X-RAY & EKG) So i go there.
They have people outside the facility with masks and they asked about my reason for coming and if i have flu like symptoms.
I respond truthfully. They tell me that unfortunately.. they cannot let me in.

By the way.. the chest panel came back negative for all of it.
There is my story.

Now if you will excuse me , i'm going to rage

THIS IS SO FUCKED UP !!
THEY DON'T HAVE ENOUGH OF THESE DAMNED TEST KITS AND THEY SAVE THEM FOR THE ELDERLY AND PEOPLE WHO BASICALLY REPORT THEY ARE HAVING TROUBLE BREATHING !!!! BY THAT POINT.. YOU HAVE INFECTED GOD KNOWS HOW MANY PEOPLE !! ALL THEY DO THE TESTING FOR IS SO THEY KNOW HOW TO ALLOCATE HOSPITAL RESOURCES AND WHERE TO PLACE THE PATIENT WITHIN THE BUILDING.
ITS COMPLETELY POINTLESS ! INSTEAD OF TESTING YOUNG , ACTIVE PEOPLE WHO ARE GOING TO WORK AND SOCIALIZE AND BUZZ AROUND (WHETHER YOU LIKE IT OR NOT ) SPREADING THIS FUCKING BUG , THEY SAVE IT FOR LIARS, PARANOID HYPOCHONDRIACS AND SICK OLD PEOPLE WHO BARELY EVEN LEAVE THE FUCKING HOUSE ANYWAY.
HOW AM I SUPPOSED TO COMPLETELY ISOLATE MYSELF ANYWAY ?????? SHOULD I BUILD A KITCHEN AND SHOWER IN MY BEDROOM ??
WHERE DO I GET FOOD ? GO TO A GROCERY STORE (EPICENTER) OR ORDER IN WHICH BASICALLY EXPOSES SOME POOR DELIVERY KID WHO WILL GO ON TO VISIT 50 HOUSES IN THE NEXT 2 WEEKS AND HAND THEM THAT SAME FUCKING PEN TO SIGN THE BILL AND GIVE HIM A TIP.
HOW WILL YOU INCORPORATE THAT IN YOUR SIMULATIONS ? OR 20 OTHER SIMILAR SCENARIOS OF CONTACT I CAN COME UP WITH RIGHT NOW ?

SOCIAL DISTANCING MY ASS.
TEST AS MANY PEOPLE AS YOU POSSIBLY CAN.
THATS HOW YOU KILL THIS THING OFF AND NOT BURDEN THE MEDICAL SYSTEM.
TESTING TAKES 2 DAYS. A SERIOUSLY ILL PERSON CAN BE HOSPITALIZED FOR WEEKS.
WHO IS DOING THE MATH IN ALL THIS ?

I'm sorry yall.. and i really like your video bud.. im just so stressed out.
it just doesn't make any sense to me man.
How the fuck do you not have enough testing kits. Or if you do, why are you being stingy with them ?
Btw.. just for some further reference, since i cant stop ranting apparently, im an operations manager at a transportation company. Thats how i came in contact with an infected person.
Our drivers are over the road and go through half the country visiting dozens of crowded shippers and receivers and those filthy fucking truck stops before they come into our small office to drop off paperwork and decide to take a shit in the one bathroom we all share.
I just can't believe this shit.. its like some daydream nightmare JOKE.
80% of our contracted accounts are pharmaceutical freight and due to this trump bullshit our volume in those commodities went down 70%.
We move over 500 TONS of contrast MRI agents - PER MONTH and twice that amount of over OTC and prescriptions medication.
Wanna know what we're doing to make up for those losses ?
DESTROYING all the costcos , walmarts, wholefoods.. you name it. Any refrigerated commodity that is in scarcity right now.
This past month we have charged more money on the spot markets to haul frozen chicken than we have in the last 12 years of moving $1.2Million value truckloads of gadolinium medium.

Did i say this was all a big JOKE ?

This whole corona virus thing will go down in history as a testament to how incompetent we are as a human race and how stupid the world leaders are...

AND

A wild conspiracy about some serious masterminds out there behind a very ... very BIG SHORT followed by an obvious clearance sale of stocks that will inevitably go parabolic once this whole debacle is over.

I think im gonna go lay down now.

All comments from YouTube:

@occupyla1

5y↑857

"All models are wrong; some are useful." Thanks for presenting this very useful model!

@StarNumbers

5y↑5

Another way of saying it: "Math is a shorthand for a theory but does not prove the theory (as such)." In this case the parameter values are assumptions and the various results are useful only to the politicians, which, moreover, strip or ignore the feedback/validation.

@QuantumConundrum

5y↑1

Very much agreed, but more so for models involving humans, and less so for natural phenomena we've studied for a very, very long time (think N-body simulations). Making this assessment is important.

@ModusPwnens72

5y↑1

@eric I like that angle much better, for two reasons. First, mistaking a representation for the thing it represents is a widespread issue across many domains, not just mathematical modeling. Second, "all models are wrong" sounds confused to me - like you should come up with a better definition of "right" and "wrong" in the contexts of models. It's silly to say "all maps are wrong but some are useful." Many maps are "right" but the threshold for a map being "right" is not as high as reflecting literally everything about the area being mapped.

@eleanorhuxley6959

5y↑4

Bruh, why use a semicolon if you're gonna use it wrong?

@mrahzzz

5y↑2

@@eleanorhuxley6959 Why was it wrong? Semicolons are used to separate complete sentences that are related. These are both complete sentences that are related in content, so I don't see why you're saying it's wrong.

1 More Replies...

@tgmcnaughton

5y↑1.4K

I'm an Emergency Medicine Physician with a PhD background in modelling. I am absolutely blown away by your work combining phenomenally effective graphics with practical modelling and a patient methodical, logical argument. Even Edward Tufte would be jealous a what you've done here. Truly one of the best presentations on any topic I've ever seen in my entire life. You deserve a medal and Isaac Newton's chair.

@tim40gabby25

4y↑19

I don't know how it panned out in Redlands, CA, but the UK screwed up by politicians overruling logicians, I'm afraid. Even now, mostly young male narcissists shop unmasked, as civil liberties don't allow questioning. A solution is they must visor up - we did a unique community visor acceptability study, and everyone can tolerate these alternatives - for the mask intolerant. Boom, as young folk say. Retired old UK medic here. Keep safe :)

@Koffe382

4y↑14

Damn that was the nicest compliment I’ve ever seen. From a fellow MD myself, thank you for taking your time to write this representing our profession.

@AthelstanEngland

4y↑4

@@tim40gabby25 scared people is the problem. Older people ruining it for the young by promoting this fear. I’m disgusted by what my generation have done to the future of my kids and grandchildren.

@fractal5764

4y↑4

I read that as "Isaac Newton's hair"

@igorpashev

4y↑1

and absolutly unrealistic: how to detect cases? where isolate them (at site)? R depends on absolute humidity. Distancing is bullshit, because respiratory desease can travel over kilometers.

3 More Replies...

@gtw4546

5y↑2.7K

3Blue1Brown: "In most towns, people don't actually spend their days drunkenly wandering around the city."
New Orleans: "Let me tell you about Mardi Gras."

@lbognini

5y↑8

😂

@joshuagallagher1133

5y↑35

@@lbognini Ireland: ... saint Patrick's day

@EmmanuelMiquet

5y↑22

Me : "Wait they don't?"

@shieh.4743

😂😂😂

@PsychicSploob

5y↑3

That's just daily life over there.

28 More Replies...

@songsofwar6966

4y↑372

21:10 this aged really well. in that this is exactly what happened, in the US and Europe and nearly everywhere that initially suppressed it

@ferociousfeind8538

4y↑32

Didn't the US suffer from like, five distinct waves? We failed to learn our lesson four different times. Amazing.
edit: and as I recall, they were like, the minimum viable definition of a wave, where we let up as soon as R dipped below 1, instead of actual cases dropping below some number.

@honestwong8942

4y↑11

@@ferociousfeind8538 R<1 is basically just infection numbers decreasing, so 5 waves is basically the trend going up and down 5 times without actually falling below anything

@ferociousfeind8538

4y↑18

@@honestwong8942 well, yeah, five instances of the U.S. almost getting a handle on the pandemic, and then seeing that R<1 and immediately relaxing all pandemic measures, letting R shoot back up again. Again, and again, and again...

@canngothi1781

*fact

@simoncgn1

4th wave 🔥🔥🔥

3 More Replies...

@louisauffret

5y↑478

17:58 literally "it's not a bug, it's a feature"

@ragnkja

5y↑59

Louis Auffret
“It’s a bug, but I liked it so much that I made it into a feature.”

@dafoex

5y↑5

Creamy Pasta
Camper van owners just spread the disease to different communities, though. It'd be like the quarantine box simulation, but instead of it being a quarantine box, you just send them all to the same community box.

@louf7178

Minimizes regard for pretentiousness.

@3blue1brown

5y↑3.3K

If you want more information on COVID-19 from someone who is an expert, I found this MSRI talk to be quite good: https://youtu.be/MZ957qhzcjI

While here we looked at what you might call an "agent-based" SIR model, if you want to see what it looks like as a set of differential equations, Ben Sparks just did a lovely video on the topic over at Numberphile: https://youtu.be/k6nLfCbAzgo

There are a few reasons I like the agent-based model here, for demo purposes at least. It's a bit easier to understand for those who are not comfortable yet with ODEs, for one. It also conveys how things are not deterministic; no real-world curve will look as smooth as the differential equations. It also makes it way easier to ask questions and bake other assumptions into the model. Introducing things like travel or community centers into the differential equations would get very hairy very quickly. For those who want to go much more deeply into this, the Institute for Disease Modeling has a lot of models free for people to look at and play with.

@the_real_editor

5y↑7

Cool!

@johnchessant3012

5y↑3

Cool!

@Zcon18

5y↑17

LOVE THIS CHANNEL THANK YOU GRANT

@viliml2763

5y↑11

Isn't quarantine the exact same thing as lowering the time it takes to become Removed?

@xX_dash_Xx

5y↑5

my man pulled out big stats and big epidemiology brain for this

142 More Replies...

@Insane_Kane

5y↑2.7K

Its ridiculous how accurate most of this ended up being

@mpiacheese

5y↑18

coronavirus 101

@Consequator

5y↑5

right ?

@andyjackson3663

5y↑9

I think the word is frightening tbh.

@user-rc2ev6cl7u

5y↑64

@@andyjackson3663 its not scary its math but its stupid how we could not stop this

@RaindropsBleeding

5y↑37

we're even seeing a second wave in places where people are beginning to ignore social distancing rules

36 More Replies...

@StrawHat6

5y↑161

This shouldn't be a PSA on "Social Distancing," this should be required viewing for Pandemics 101. Great introduction on the thought process and problem solving that can go into epidemiology. As usual, very approachable, 3B1B. Thanks again.

@prapanthebachelorette6803

4y↑1

Yes

@mehrdadanvar8518

5y↑36

this series of animations were so stunning. Never before had I seen such a great educational content. I am a general physician and I had to go through a lot to remind my patients and families to practice social distancing. I broke my back, trying to simulate the epidemic during the recent 3-weeks . and here you did it perfectly. We owe you all!

@Harry-qh5rt

5y↑466

"maybe we don't value the heroes behind them the way we should"
Well said

@joshuarohantitchener7395

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0U_FBHKYqRk

@vejymonsta3006

5y↑11

Capitalism doesn't value anything that can't turn a profit today or tomorrow. That is why real heroes like that don't get the attention they deserve.

@nschoem

5y↑7

It's like IT: do your job right, and no one will know you've done anything at all.

@karamjeetsembhi2028

5y↑1

Yes, They are the unsung heroes

@myerloeb4948

5y↑383

18:00 "It's not a bug, it's a feature!"

@davidgumazon

5y↑8

No Clip
Lmao GG

@psikogeek

5y↑16

Its a bug AND a feature.

@FIRE_STORMFOX-3692

5y↑3

Thats us the introverts

@pprophet

5y↑3

Myer Loeb it’s not a bug it’s a virus

@renemunkthalund3581

5y↑1

When your model starts rebelling…

3 More Replies...

@CoinEaterBTBM

5y↑582

“just like the simulations!” has never felt so real

@igorpashev

4y↑2

absolutely unrealistic: how to detect cases? where isolate them (at site)? R depends on absolute humidity. Distancing is bullshit, because respiratory disease can travel over kilometers.

@ilovecheese8707

3y↑13

@@igorpashev so that’s why u should wear a mask

@SkulsterDulster

3y↑6

@@igorpashev Respiratory diseases are not always airborne if thats what you mean. Also, I need sources on the last claim because ive only known airborne diseases to remain for mere hours. Airborne diseases also infect efficiently through moist droplets from one person, also made more effective within 6 feet. Wear masks, distance yourselves. Thx champ.

@alfiek9037

@mightyowl1252

5y↑228

18:00 Now that’s called thinking outside the box.

@OriginalSuschi

5y↑7

I'm fresh lolwalker

@ItReallyIsYaBoi

5y↑4

those guys are us gamers having no problem sitting at our pc for weeks with literally no real life interaction

@joshuarohantitchener7395

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0U_FBHKYqRk

the box can always be expanded

@Jakobknits

5y↑645

This is a really good video and I really like how you've gamed out many different scenarios and shown their outcomes.

My main criticism, and it's a pretty big one, is that you've given your preferred control mechanism, isolation of infected individuals, a huge advantage by not varying the lag between infection and isolation. I don't think isolation one day after infection is realistic for nCoV2 even in a scenario of very widespread testing. I would have liked to see how quickly the benefit of isolation falls as that lag grows to 2, 5, or 7 days.

@petariivanov7750

5y↑129

A well-structured, polite and respectful criticism that tries to constructively bring more options to the table of an important discussion. Surely a material to be explored in a similar video. Thank you

@brownsugarissupreme

5y↑20

Exactly. In our country, no protocols were made to address the pandemic until many confirmed cases were already reported and thus no efforts were made for social quarantine. It took weeks until the government responded. There's also the concern of the cases being way higher than actually reported.

@calmeilles

5y↑21

This is the problem that we have. It seems that covid-19 may be infections for a number of days before becoming symptomatic in the patient. Some estimates up to 14. Even if we can have proximity testing and contact tracing it would be insufficient.
With any significant number of asymptomatic infections — whether or not they remain so — only full population testing and isolation of those testing positive could be effective in preventing further waves.

@rowanjones3476

5y↑9

...And in some cases may remain asymptomatic and untested. Hence the importance of acting as though we might be infected.

@KoalaBear92

5y↑8

THIS!

Also, I have the feeling that people are being "removed" way too quickly in his simulation, plus that the R0 for the real disease was around 3...
It's a good video about infectious diseases in general, and about the effects of different measures against the spread of it.
However, my fear is that people would underestimate the neccessity for social distancing/hygiene as they might think that isolating would have been the best anyway.

Anyway, I still think this should be shared globally (I mean the video, not the disease), so that people really understand why the should keep their distance and keep their hygiene up!

10 More Replies...

@tacticallemon7518

5y↑692

Here’s another idea to simulate: homes
There’s small boxes outside of the main box, and each of those small boxes has 3 dots assigned to them.
Each dot has a ‘role’
1 dot has a ~25% chance to travel to a main area (grocery stores, restaurants etc.) on any day. Make three ‘hubs’ in the big box, with an equal chance for the ‘wonderers’ to travel to
The second dot has a ~75% chance on any day to leave their house, but stay away from the ‘hubs’ and try to avoid other dots.
The third dot has a ~10% chance to leave their house, but they stay right outside it.

@hezigler

5y↑31

Tactical Lemon Excellent concept. I might disagree with your specs. I'm prejudice towards attempting to model a family. At that, you may have a good beginning with three adults, perhaps a married couple with an aging parent. Now we need to add two or three children, each with various levels of activities of interaction with the adults and some potential for going off short distances with the intent to inter act with other children in somewhat similar situations and possibly those children's parents or guardians. I think I 'be lost focus on modeling a single family and have started a neighborhood. Oh well, in a more comprehensive and complex model, we'd want a central city and suburbs. NYC and SF are exceptional. Urban geographers may have something to add...

@travcollier

5y↑8

I was thinking that social distancing would probably be better modeled using many many small networks (families and tight social circles) as well.
His "communities" simulation does seem to result in the most interesting and maybe useful results. Beyond the "test and isolate" result, which has been infectious disease dogma for about 400 years in the West (probably longer in China). Of course, we have much improved abilities to test and isolate now... wish we (the US) would have used them -_-

@m3po22

5y↑13

I wonder if you could take a satellite image and set up the algorithm automatically. Identify structures, and then estimate the number of people who spend time there by the surface area it takes up. In big cities this would have to take into account the height of the buildings somehow I guess.

@ThylineTheGay

yes

@OrlOnEarth

5y↑11

@@m3po22 great idea but no need for satellite image, the phone network is enough, more accurate and you can track contaminated, that's exactly what they did in South Korea and China

18 More Replies...

@alopez545

5y↑14

Grant, thank you for this great presentation on simulating an epidemic. These visualizations are outstanding for understanding how the numbers really work.

@MattWhitmanTMBH

5y↑883

This is calm and reasonable and smart. A video like this is not only informative, but reassuring as well. Thanks for weaponizing your math brain to help people Grant.

@WillEhrendreich

5y↑6

And thank you for doing exactly the same thing as Grant does, but with good natured snarky commentary about the Bible and history and Christianity things. You sir, are a treasure, juat like 3 blue 1 brown.

@rodgermilner7800

5y↑1

I never expected to see you here. Love Mom

@robertkiestov3734

The pandemic isn't real.

@robertkiestov3734

@@gloekgloek3046 Damage control rabbi detected.

@igorpashev

and absolutely unrealistic: how to detect cases? where isolate them (at site)? R depends on absolute humidity. Distancing is bullshit, because respiratory disease can travel over kilometers.

1 More Replies...

@ArthurSeijiNishikawa

5y↑30

11:30 The way that the social distancing makes the dots in the top left box arrange themselves in a periodic/crystalline way, even forming grain boundaries, is so satisfying to watch!

@3blue1brown

5y↑14

I agree, that was deeply satisfying.

@seanp4644

5y↑1

I NOTICED THAT TOO OMG the lil dots were forming crystals it was adorable

@matthewwebster4220

5y↑1

@@3blue1brown It appears that the infection rate is different within a grain vs at the boundary. I was looking at this and wondering whether any effect from this or the geometry of the box could have any physical interpretation, or whether it is an artifact of how this was simulated.

@bahrss

Oh, a chemist in the comment section)
Hello there))

@paulkolodner2445

5y↑1

That's known as a Wigner crystal. First observed in experiments in which electrons were poured onto the surface of liquid helium. The crystal becomes unstable at high density or as the level of fluctuations increases. Nicely explained in the Wikipedia article.

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@leptongalaxy4158

5y↑1.4K

"If they remain unnoticed and spreadable in everyone before becoming lethal."

Laughs in Plague Inc.

@amunak_

5y↑143

@@x_x5009 This is the most unrealistic part of Plague, Inc. unfortunately. Diseases mutate, yes, but they mutate independently, and IRL every mutation needs to (re-)infect people with the newer version in order to have the "new" effects. Whereas in Plague, Inc. all your previous infections mutate at once, which makes the game fun and easier, but also completely wrong.

@morroghaiky6580

5y↑15

@@amunak_ It would be interesting to make a scenario, in which you cannot evolve (or devolve) symptoms manually, just increasing and decreasing mutations and wait for it.

@ashleybyrd2015

5y↑42

@@morroghaiky6580 or a scenario where every time you mutate it creates a new patient zero which has to infect everyone again, immune suppression could make it easier to infect pre-infected people.

@fragilebean1314

5y↑4

You guys are forgetting biowarefare! I know that none of us can be certain of where this virus came from, and either way, we can't trust the CCP or anything they tell us or their people. They're already telling them that the virus came from America.

So that aside, it's my personal belief that this is a virus that's been created in a lab (in 2013- theres records of it, and it won awards). The genetic technical capabilities of the higher ups is insane, if you dont believe in aliens and backwards engineering secretly happening, then this concept will be implausible to you. The details, proofs, and reasons behind this happening dont matter for now, but if you want to learn more, Edge of Wonder has tons of videos on this and related topics.

Anyways. This virus either gets out by accident, or on purpose. The CCP is now taking advantage of the situation, and wants to use it to decimate everything, for it's own advantage. Since it's been created in a lab, I dont know what its capable of. I dont know if the virus itself is nanotechnology, and if those nanoparticles are spreadable from person to person. Maybe the virus is programmed to replicate unnatural human designed particles, and then is able to essentially have an on and off switch that can be turned remotely.

Another one of my beliefs is that, due to chinese prophecy (I /think/ that it's in the book, tui bei tu, but you'll have to check what edge of wonder said in their video), basically, this virus will do what it's doing now, and then months later, just stop out of nowhere. No trace of it, and we all go back to normal. Then, 10 years from now, it will come back again, then disappear forever. The only way this can make sense is if the virus has an on off switch like what i described. Theres a lot more details to this that I would like to explain but people dont like reading long walls of text for some reason.

@erikeriks

5y↑3

It's funny because the mortality rate is actually rising like crazy so yes you're right it's getting more and more lethal. It used to be about 3% and now it's already 4.5%

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@tomasgarza1249

3y↑40

There is an interesting tweak that can be done:

Separate the "removed" in dead and recovered.

Every infected has a probability of becoming dead or recovered.

Recovered become Susceptible after a long time (Due to losing the immunity or the virus mutating)

@cdmcfall

2y↑3

I'd go even further and separate the recovered into immune and susceptible categories. Might also include non-human factors like animal reservoirs and mutations.

@GarryDumblowski

1y↑1

if you really want to be pedantic you could make the recovery/death ratio dependent on the current number of active cases (like if hospitals are overrun). Then you could put numbers to flattening the curve lowering the death toll even if the same total number of people got infected.

@matiasgarciacasas558

28w

I know this comment is two years old but I think not distinguishing between recovered and dead was the right call.

The probability of an infected person dying depends on a lot of factors that would make the video a lot more complicated, the general rule followed was that having a flatter curve reduces the number of deaths, which is simple and accurate enough for the pourposes of the video.

@jmlatimer

5y↑1.4K

The 100% social distancing model looks oddly crystalline and satisfying.

@vorname1485

5y↑32

with the typical errors ^^

@Blackdiamond2

5y↑95

Looks exactly like a metal lattice, with slight lines of dislocation - which would represent grain boundaries in metal. If you think about how bonded atoms are basically dots that attract each other but repel each other at closer distances so can never touch, it's pretty analagous to a bunch of repelling dots confined in a space together. This is why you get the same structures and properties in both. Funny how maths do that sometimes.

@internetuser8922

5y↑26

My high school chemistry teacher tried to explain entropy in a similar way. A real-world example he gave was people choosing seats in a movie theater that’s initially empty and gradually fills up. When the occupancy is low, people are unlikely to sit down right next to a stranger, etc.

@joshuarohantitchener7395

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0U_FBHKYqRk

@ShinnahWilde

5y↑3

I would like to see a similar video about the supply of goods relating to differing levels of governmental price controls.

13 More Replies...

@manuroitman

5y↑408

"nope, I"m out" 11/10 would buy happily

@garrettk7166

Already feeling the "Nope" desire.

@GingerDas

5y↑617

"Kissing, sneezing on each other, all that good stuff."

@sand5461

5y↑29

Sneezing on each other, as you do.

@NoriMori1992

5y↑40

"Sneeze on me like one of your French girls."

@Max-cs1dn

5y↑1

I cracked up at that line hard. Lol.

@Sandesh98147

5y↑2

@@NoriMori1992 I was cracking up too hard

@docpelletier6630

3y↑24

I ran into this because I was looking at your Bayes' Theorem videos. However, it's now 2 years later. It's remarkable (or, as someone below put it, "ridiculous," how prescient this ended up being. It's so clear which paths we followed and how it ended up being just like you predicted.

@lucca7716

5y↑161

9:52 is the main strategy in Plague Inc.

@wolframstahl1263

5y↑29

When he talked about how diceased individuals will not stay infective, I immediately thought "true, unless I evolve necrosis for my plague".

@PeterAuto1

I was also thinking about that

@pouzivateljutube2995

Exactly

@OrchidAlloy

You mean the bad strategy.

@KiemPlant

5y↑151

18:00 It's funny how a bug made the model more realistic.

@SmartK8

5y↑1

It's the preppers bugging out ;)

@wwvvvvvww

5y↑2

After all human mind is not perfectly programmed codes.

@shivamcholin6760

it was weird to even experience that , i guess the math package has some huge bugs in it

@laurv8370

yeah, world of warcraft all again... (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corrupted_Blood_incident)

@marouaneh175

5y↑1

"It's not a bug, it's a feature" - every programmer at some point.

@massimilianoc2436

5y↑218

2 years ago, in a completely different simulation, I had my circles escaping the box when I added a repulsive force to solve collisions! I laughed a lot here. Nevertheless, many thanks for this great video (as usual). Cheers from Italy.

@susanne5803

5y↑20

All the best wishes to Italy!

@ranevc

5y↑17

Stay healthy in Italy!

@riddhimanna8437

5y↑2

Take care and stay healthy

@thebubbler2832

5y↑1

Almost like it was designed

@Shaurya_Pant

5y↑1

Where and how are these simulations done? Can you please tell?
Is is just python with some libraries or is there some other specific software for this purpose?

3 More Replies...

@arisjones1792

5y↑1

Brilliant job! Well done my friend. Very informative, nicely illustrated and calmly presented. Straight to the point. No loud music, No commercial. I just wish I could find more channels like this. BRAVO !!!

@ThePsychicProject

5y↑180

Youtube likes to recommend me news videos instead. RECOMMEND THIS GUY

@laurinneff4304

5y↑2

Watch more of his videos, at some point it'll start recommending his videos

@KiemPlant

5y↑1

I was recommended this video, but then again im subscribed as well so that kinda makes sense.

@davidpiepgrass743

5y↑260

A "full city" model would be interesting... households with a few people each, workplaces, schools, markets, hospitals, retirement homes with younger workers, quarantine zones, X% asymptomatic cases... toilet paper hoarders...

@SouthernHerdsman

5y↑13

Imagine all the world's intelligence agency doesn't have a package like that in their tool suite. This means governments are being purposefully dumb to become Thanos.

@asddsaaassddd

5y↑8

simulation like that would be very time and computationally costly.

@slartybarfastb3648

5y↑1

@@SouthernHerdsman I'm certain some intelligence agencies do have that capability and model it thoroughly before releasing these pathogens against opposing nations. What do you think we're experiencing right now? A mistake, or a cold, calculated attack? There will be be a long train of conflict following this. Whether it was an intentional attack, an accidental release, or a natural occurrence, this will lead to war.

@paulmartin42

5y↑2

@@slartybarfastb3648 Cheer up

@dreggory82

5y↑1

But for it to be even more accurate, surfaces touched and air that was coughed in would have to be added.

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@50millANDaSuit

5y↑181

Sir, honestly: the simulations and analyses were so well done and have so much common sense that I tilt my hat to your work in gratitude! I am definitely becoming a patron!

@LizNeptune

5y↑2

is that hat a fedora by any chance?

@0tobsam0

4y↑36

I love this channel... My university frequently refers to your videos as a good learning resource and I absolutely agree! (Also, I've known this channel for years, so I'm happy to see that my university approves it as a good source :) )

@pantsik2

5y↑56

Until now, I admired 3B1B for his amazing illustration. Now I also admire him for his social contribution.

@jasonfeng3888

5y↑147

Man 3Blue1Brown coming in clutch during these quarantine hours

@danielmessier9845

5y↑120

This video answers literally all the math related questions I've been having about this whole thing.

@johnschneider8339

The Covid-19 is a HOAX. Corona-Virus has never been isolated and checked with the 3 Postulates of Robert Koch. Pasteur has treated the whole lot/world ! ALL HAS BEEN PROVEN!!!! Social distance is DEADLY for society...

@noraaaaaaa

4y↑9

incredible. not only super fun to watch, but also simple to understand. such a shame that so many cannot wrap their heads around such a concept when this video exists.

@patnutoris4054

5y↑89

This video should be on every TV channel around the globe for at least one week. It would save thousands of life.

@elitelavamage

5y↑523

im curious how having multiple central locations like a school and a few grocery stores will change this assuming that every dot picks 1 of the 3 to visit also it would be interesting to see how things would change if dots try to stay in clumps similar to a family staying at home

@QalinaCom

5y↑19

I think it dosn't matter if one person out of the family does the shopping, as he earlier talked about people in close proximity are at risk. Eventually the whole family will get it.

@harlisviikmae6240

5y↑39

Just imagine the dot being a family, if one gets sick probably everyone else will as well.

@evansaschow

5y↑5

QalinaCom the families are also just a similar case to the 12 different communities. Just apply many communities of size 1-7 within each community and you’ve effectively simulated a family

@dominik262

Model with visiting "city centers" works that way

@n8programs733

5y↑3

I built a simulation that takes into account school & work (along with household life):
https://n8python.github.io/epidemicSimulation/
I explain it here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yo1rL0hqHAQ&t=51s

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@CreepyMagician

5y↑53

As a high school math teacher, I'm making this video a recommended watch by all my student (especially those in Algebra 2, who were just learning about exponential growth functions. THANK YOU!

@adrianm7223

5y↑2

Thank you for putting this out. The effectiveness of how you explained this is the best I have seen, in fact, I had to share it because now is the time to understand the impact of your observations.

@jhuny

5y↑70

Wasn't expecting to feel such a wide range of emotions watching some pi symbols and dots shuffling about the screen. And genuinely funny moments too (the dots leaving the Bay Area lols) Great video!

@mikikaboom9084

5y↑160

17:57 The dots are going to Greenland

@wolframstahl1263

5y↑12

Covid managed to reach Greenland (and Iceland) surprisingly early. Madagascar managed to keep it out for quite a while.

@yunusaliakbas9192

5y↑4

Mikołaj Kuziuk only OG’s will understand.

@wayway7017

good joke man

@polvy

5y↑1

I'd say those dots are going to North Korea

@Kastor774

5y↑1

Plague Inc player clearly invested in cold resistance and water transmission early. Well played

@marcorempfer1187

5y↑207

"even when all the parameters are the same, some runs take three times longer to reach this point than others"
This deserves more than just a side note.
With agents starting at random locations and then moving around randomly, you are likely to end up with a chaotic system.
It cannot be stressed enough how crucial it is to have multiple test runs for each set of parameters.
For some parameter sets, you might end up with almost everybody infected in one run and the infection quickly dying away in another run, just due to random fluctuations.
Virus simulations (as well as economic simulations and weather forecasts for that matter) can be highly susceptible to random noise.

@jameslynch8738

5y↑7

@@00O3O1B Yes, a nice followup would include a qualitative analysis of the official numbers and adjustments that can be added to the series of algorithms. Even though at some point all you can do is measure the overall statistics, once the fundamental parameters of the virus are accounted for then you can isolate effects of behavioral interventions such as limiting borders, etc. I for one am interested in the cumulative effect of panic shopping and hoarding on the broader population in exacerbating issues. Those who could afford to prepare would do in excess immediately when it would have an exaggerated effect on those with lower income and it took weeks for stores to enact any restrictions to buffer the impacts.

Another major factor as this goes further will be housing instability and population movement, as that increases it will negate the effectiveness of travel restrictions.

@3blue1brown

5y↑85

Excellent point! This is why I started all the actions in this video once there was a sufficient number of cases. For each one I showed, I rand multiple to be sure they were qualitatively the same and tried to comment when they weren't. For proper modeling (as opposed to demonstration videos), you'd, of course, want to run many and find the right way to aggregate the results into your summaries.

@SeraphX2

@@3blue1brown So does this mean we really had to destroy the American economy to achieve this? Once the tests were available (today being maybe a few days to a week where proper testing has been a bit more consistent) could we have lifted the ban like, this week (03/28), now that we know we can test and isolate effectively? It really looked like once you have a grasp on testing and isolation, you could still live your life as long as you were being super hygienic. But can we count on EVERYONE being hygienic? Did you model only partial hygiene?

@coffeestainedwreck

5y↑9

@@SeraphX2 I'm not sure the US is able to test and trace it's way out of this yet, but you're right that effective testing and isolation can halt the spread and prevent second waves (South Korea and Taiwan being excellent examples of this) with much less disruption. The disruption (and economic damage) will end when the disease does, and the fastest way to do that is to catch up with the disease as soon as possible. Shutdowns and distancing are important in getting to that point.

@jacobcastro1885

@@SeraphX2 the model would perhaps have to take into account hygiene/isolation compliance based on infection prevalence (fear) inorder to measure the effectiveness of public policy.

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@arwahsapi

5y↑5

I am more amazed to how you put up all this into scintillating presentation rather than the content itself. We already got tons of scientific journals and publications but good visualizers are what the world lacks now.

@ajalipio1

cant agree more

@craftie7721

5y↑183

@supernovaw39

5y↑14

That .5% threshold doesn't sound good. There would be 3 000 infected people in my city, for instance.

@Alistair

5y↑7

@@supernovaw39 if 3000 were infected that would mean only 12 dead, 11 of which were about to die shortly anyway

@toddhoward7125

5y↑17

His source code is in the description, if anyone wants to try

@sfurules

5y↑6

3Blue1Brown is far too smart to have not run that simulation...so I worry that its ("its" being Craftie!'s simulation idea, which I think is brilliant) lack of inclusion might be a sign that the results aren't....uh...valuable....at the moment.....no now that I think about it 3Blue1Brown is likely far too ethical to run that simulation and not include it in the video regardless of what it might indicate.

They should!

@jcims

5y↑6

- Would be interesting to model three stages of contagious 1 - asymptomatic (normal mobility) 2 - symptomatic but home (greater isolation) 3 - hospitilization (isolated)

17 More Replies...

@Xelbiuj

5y↑1.2K

Countless pie people were murdered in the making of this video.

@laihela

5y↑111

*removed

@johnhodgson4216

5y↑3

Infinte YouTube Commentators cannot write a Shakespeare Play, only Monkeys

@inthefade

5y↑28

Pi people? Pie people.

@tattarrrrattat

5y↑8

we will never forget the fallen

@FeraleHubbard

5y↑1

haha

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@carykh

5y↑183

I like how the Pis are side-eyeing each other at 10:40. Like they're saying "Ew, it's YOU."

@wolframstahl1263

5y↑4

Hey Cary, nice to see you around (though not surprising).
Love your content, hope you're doing ok! <3

@shannu_boi

5y↑3

Aye it's Cary!

@Zcon18

5y↑2

Yo, what is up my dude didn't expect to see you here, it seems like you're putting a lot of time into abacaba which is cool.

@simponic

5y↑1

Nice to see my daddy in 3b1b

@inthrutheoutdoor5849

5y↑1

I do that at the grocery store now...

@jcartdev

4y↑9

Amazing work. This needs to be mandatory for everyone to learn.

@sanko111

5y↑53

18:00 When the model is so realistic, it includes existing real life behavior that's clearly outside the initial assumptions that were strictly programmed in.

@cesarjom

5y↑326

The "second wave" scenario is why it will be very challenging to determine an end date to the social distancing, shelter in place, etc strategies, that is until a COVID-19 vaccine is available to the global population.

@ApaX1981

5y↑25

Well....this will change our lives for the comming year atleast. There is not going to be an end very soon.

@JohnnyProductionsOfficialTM

5y↑7

It takes like a year to make a vaccine.

@AngusMcIntyre

5y↑18

@@JohnnyProductionsOfficialTM depends how many rules you want to break!

@VBYTP

5y↑4

We need to just man up and all get it, so we can get back to work and the economy can recover

@paulkennedy8701

5y↑35

@@VBYTP
Sure. The millions who will die that way are all old or weak or poor or unlucky. I'm sure you won't know any of them

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@Feceroll

5y↑1.6K

Everyone is playing checkers while Grant is playing 23 dimensional Plague Inc

@Blusuri

5y↑3

@pcslug3122

4y↑1

It was a good game.

@shebahammy

4y↑1

1000th like

@mathguy37

in 100D chess in minecraft using only basic redstone

@62sy

Do you mean he was playing : “PARADOX-BILLIARDS-VOSTROYAN-ROULETTE-TENTH DIMENSIONAL-HYPERCUBE-CHESS-STRIPPOKER!”?

@jasperbayless

4y↑63

Right about now you can be saying "I TOLD YOU SO!!!"

@pallingtontheshrike6374

5y↑444

I'mma steal a comment I saw elsewhere:

Actions taken before a pandemic are always "alarmist," and actions taken afterward are always "inadequate"

@kevinscales

5y↑36

So true, and it's soooo easy to criticize (and profitable if you are a journalist)

@fygarOnTheRun

5y↑28

I remember reading an article covering the spanish flu, where cities handled the outbreak differently. The city with strong early measures was accused of being alarmist and such, but many more people survived.

@nomoretalk2967

5y↑3

tbh it depends. in France it was 1st inadequate then alarmist + inadequate again then nothing we'll surely be all dead by the end of the pandemia

@givrally7634

5y↑5

@@nomoretalk2967 That's in part because of the socio-economic factor : A lot of people are being (rightfully or not, I won't weigh in) angry with Macron, and whatever he does, they'll keep being angry. "Gilets jaunes", pensions reforms, all those people have a deep bias against him.
Case in point, 2 weeks ago, on Thursday, he declared that schools and universities would close on Monday : He was called an alarmist. The next monday, he put confinement rules in place : He apparently did it "too late".

@Ragnarok540

5y↑5

Better to be an alarmist than a Trump. I mean, inadequate.

2 More Replies...

@LutfiAziz

5y↑1.3K

Day 69:
Dots became sentient, and worked together to escape

@Fawstah

5y↑2

Lutfi H nice

@NourAhmed-go5jo

5y↑6

They are PI not dot

@TheChzoronzon

5y↑34

Day 69 is always particularly auspicious for working together towards a common goal

@Nippleless_Cage

5y↑7

I think the escaped dots represent the people who saw the direction the world was going and preemptively committed suicide. I'm in college and it happened to two of my friends, one of whom I was pretty close with.

@Basky008

5y↑2

Pi-Net is coming!!

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@ShivamGupta-mb9vr

5y↑22

This channel is one of my favorite channels. It treats maths in a way that I could only wish someone taught me during my school life. I love this channel. Thanks for working so hard 3 blue 1 brown! You're the best!

@littlestonesadventures3939

5y↑1

It’s not just a video about math, it’s a video about the Coronavirus.

@adamabele785

4y↑3

Thank you for making this video. It probably has saved some lives.

@eviv8010

5y↑77

No blue dots were harmed in the making of this film.

@m.leesmith6157

5y↑276

The "escaped dots" around17:50 are the people leaving big cities.

@Moonsaa

5y↑9

They are the people leaving where ever they are currently. You shouldn't move anywhere for any reason.

@AngleSideSideThm

5y↑14

I'd say they're more like preppers retreating to their bunkers.

@5-minute-witness356

5y↑5

@@AngleSideSideThm Preppers heading for bunkers are less risky dots than dots isolated at home. They won't infect anyone or get infected, because they are REALLY staying put. They aren't even going to grocery stores.

@ralphhardie7492

5y↑2

Going to Florida

@_-_-_-_

5y↑1

@@Ricardo-C Your fascism is showing.

4 More Replies...

@PunchBug-nd3pp

5y↑436

This video was so popular they started doing this in real life

@fishyeverything8530

5y↑2

Uderated comment

@aramzyf

5y↑1

go up my friend

@Ethan-rw7ub

5y↑1

I hope nobody tried to reanimate the control case scenario lol

@mbuhtz

3y↑81

Watching this in Nov 2021, I'd love to see how these simulations change (if they do) now that we know covid is primarily airborne and only secondarily contact-driven, and with a portion of the population vaccinated (with the accompanying reduction in infection and transmission). Excellent modeling, thank you!

@NJcinemaHD

3y↑3

I think vaccinnations on some population both drastically decrease the percentage of deaths in the "removed" section as well as decrease the infection rate of that populus. Would be interesting to simulatee vaccination percentages (like f.e. 90% in spain and 75% in germany) against each other, while controlling for other variables. You also know the rough mortality of vaccinnated und unvaccinated populus, hospitalisation rate etc... Very interesting stuff! If more ppl got educated by this, maybe they would understand what gov. officials or scientists are nonstop saying!

@alansnyder8448

3y↑1

@alexandrasinclair9383

3y↑10

Also the variable that previously ‘removed’ populations can now become reinfected with progressions of new variations in the virus.

@dzezonja3558

3y↑2

If you think vaccinations you get reduce the number please elaborate the statistics in US right now. Less than 40% unvaccinated, yet you're experiencing exponential growth of covid compared to a year ago with 0% vaccinated. Please explain this to me and I'll believe what was recently put out as vaccine, actually works.

Vaccine should protect you so we're speaking 40% of population suddenly getting a mad surge in infections? Something's really paradoxical about this.

@NXTangl

3y↑7

@@dzezonja3558 Vaccine is effectively reducing (_not_ eliminating) infection probability just for the vaccinated; as the simulation proves, that alone isn't enough. I would actually appreciate a simulation with different percentages vaccinated, though.

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@mellinghedd267

5y↑246

Numberphile: Who are you?
3B1B: I'm you but more polished.

@msclrhd

5y↑51

Numberphile talked about the underlying mathematics and how to construct the SIR models, 3B1B talked about how to experiment with those models in order to test and predict different containment strategies.

@faeton9359

5y↑4

nope

@imranq9241

5y↑12

They are completely different

@cityuser

5y↑10

Different videos. You could actually follow along Numberphile's model, meanwhile this is just a showcase.

@Zcon18

AHAAHA

2 More Replies...

@Maxime4377

5y↑23

18:04 "It's not a bug, it's a feature" you nailed it

@kaustubhgupta46

5y↑13

This is pure gold!
Absolutely fantastic video
Gives an insightful outlook on ways to control a pandemic.
Just loved it
Please keep up the good work!

@michaelhedrick589

Oh yeah 24 Karats BABY!

@namenamename390

5y↑49

"What if people avoid contact Wich others for a while, but then they kind of get tired and stop?"
We don't have to simulate the answer to that question anymore, we have the real life data right here.

@thankyouforthismanysubscri4521

5y↑164

9:15 Anyone who has played Pandemic 2 knows this. If you give your victims internal hemorrhaging immediately, you'll lose pretty quickly. If you infect the entire world with no symptoms at all, then instantly mutate organ failure, you'll win (assuming you started in Madagascar which, as we all know, is the safest place on Earth). Thank god diseases don't suddenly mutate kill-switches like that in real life.

@TehIdiotOne

5y↑37

Well, diseases can mutate and suddenly become more deadly, but that just makes a new strand that doesen't affect the already infected people.

@yoavsnake

5y↑19

Thankfully this is not exactly the case in real life. While the coronavirus already has a few slightly different strains, viruses aren't hiveminds that can mutate all at once.

@NoNameAtAll2

5y↑17

you still lose because of Greenland

@Douglas.Kennedy

5y↑4

How about make a virus with a long incubation and non-symptomatic spread time, with a 20x flu chance of death at the end?

@IStMl

5y↑3

Greenland is the safest not Madagascar

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@Bartooc

5y↑485

Pandemic starts
Medics: It's hell on Earth
Mathematicians: It's free real estate

@diatomsaus

5y↑85

People dropping dead from the virus.
Mathematicians: They are removed

@Ethan-rw7ub

LMAO why not right?

@Twebs12

Bartooc https://youtu.be/I6HM12hpblI

@mustafamalik4211

5y↑73

1:32 I like how those Pi's become sad whenever they get infected.

@ragnkja

Mustafa Malik
Most of us feel miserable when ill, don’t we?

@michaelhedrick589

☹️

@redaxxx

3y↑10

A remake of this including re-infections would be super interesting

@midoris2969

5y↑50

@itsnotyasir

5y↑226

Everyone: It's a Pandemic.
3B1B: Well, It's also math.

@oldcowbb

5y↑17

surprise surprise, the best tool human invented is related to everything

@michaelhedrick589

Inhale
MATH RULES
Exhale

@joshuarohantitchener7395

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0U_FBHKYqRk

math is art

@BWirth

5y↑10

Awesome unintended visualization of grain boundaries in cristalline structures at 11:45 in the top left.

@Tepalus

3y↑5

17:58 "It's not a bug, it's a feature"
Storytelling done by an error in your code. Nice. 👌🏽

@lazaraza

5y↑264

"Test, Test, Test!"
A sage has told us...
Grant has just demonstrated using a simulation how true these words that were.

@a1mforthetop

5y↑2

The test might be flawed. Do you absolutely know that it works? I think not

@iliterallycanteven5347

5y↑2

@@a1mforthetop No test like these are ever 100% accurate, mainly because you can't calculate human error.

@wwvvvvvww

5y↑8

@@a1mforthetop Doctors are of course well aware of the flaws of tests. Tests are not perfect, so they are never performed only once.
The common practice is someone would be diagnosed only when multiple tests turn positive, sometimes a combination of different tests (RNA, viral protein, etc), & hence different sensitivity & specificity, would be used.
If you don't trust one particular coin to be a fair one, then flip multiple ones multiple times to be sure.

@danielmolnar4371

@@a1mforthetop That scenario is essentially encapsulated in the models as a fraction of people who are not identified as infectious.

@danielmolnar4371

5y↑1

@Zwenk Wiel if you could test most people and quarantine only them, social distancing is not a necessity anymore, which would preserve millions of jobs and livelihoods. Also, loads of people still won't isolate and stay away unless actually put in a hospital quarantine even with no to mild symptoms. Individualistic societies are not good at following expert advice...

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@null4331

5y↑318

Outbreak: starts
Dots: Ight imma head out

@kaboomwinn4026

5y↑4

Some people have a temptation to travel on airplanes when there an epidemic at 17:50

@nerobernardino88

5y↑1

Just look at how damn fast it spread to the four corners of this earth.
Someone: coughs Guess I'll explore the world!

@hgcgggfdftaa3539

@@kaboomwinn4026 #epidemic

@milandavid7223

5y↑9

11:31 Top left is a nice visualization of boundary layers in crystal structures

@xxbarry_blyat69xx5

5y↑193

@Jwmbike14

5y↑11

So, opposite of Plague Inc? Sounds awesome

@quevez8742

Hola

@petrkisselev5085

5y↑21

And the sequel will be called "economic recession", where you play as a government that has to deal with a population suffering from a 20% unemployment rate, record cases of death by starvation and suicide and riots in the streets due to the bad handling of the pandemic.

The aftermath of the corona virus will be worse than the disease.

@aidenpearce4216

So basically real world?

@rufodeer5421

Thanks for that game idea! Might make it happen.

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@irgski

5y↑43

Thanks Grant. The “visualization” makes this whole thing more understandable to the layperson.
Wondering if it’s possible to see if any of your scenarios match the data we’re seeing in the US, as a whole and maybe New York as a “worst case”?

@nektarsolne4niy804

5y↑2

We don’t have the actual parameters to do that. Also simulating 10+ million dots would be a bit tough I assume. But the parameters that he tweaked were arbitrary and nobody knows exact values at this point. It would be incredibly difficult to simulate such a case. You also don’t know how many people actually got sick and who recovered before testing. So many unknowns. This is more of a representative case to show effectiveness of different techniques. Just imagine, some people are dumb enough to break social distancing and it makes every effort go to waste. A person with confirmed covid19 went to a funeral after being ordered to self-isolate and because of that there are 99 new confirmed cases. We went from 35 to 135 in a matter of 4 days. Cant’t simulate all that :)

@SocietyOfTheSpectacl

what Data ?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bM9aZflBoOU

@menigmatique

5y↑5

Beautiful take near the end of the video

For the under appreciated heroes on the front lines during this pandemic and the ones that never happened because of you, thank you!

@AlanRick26

5y↑154

Since extending lockdowns is likely, I’d be curious to see the effect of buddying. I.e. meeting with one individual is frequent (better mental health and hygiene control) but meeting strangers is reduced.

@Khaim.m

5y↑16

I think you can basically treat each buddy-group as an individual, since any infection will immediately get the rest of the group. So it's a question of whether the increased isolation from distancing is enough to balance the increased interactions from having N times as many bodies in the group.

@givrally7634

5y↑5

@@Khaim.m Not sure we can treat buddies as an individual, because buddying would happen (it really doesn't) between me and my friend, or between my friend and their friend, but not between me and my friend's friend, because we don't know each other.
To model this, you'd have to make a graph, with each dot being connected to between 1 and 5 other dots.

@parisqs

5y↑2

Not only stranger but also friends. You can't tell who is inffected unless there is a symptom.

@r033cx

@@givrally7634 it will be the same as control run, but will spread in a chain

@shubhamrajput2667

5y↑1

@@Khaim.m what about complete lockdown? Family remains in houses

@MrCasulu

5y↑3

Awesome video!
I’d like to comment on the central hubs and the asymptomatic people.
- Central hubs: I see that there are fundamentally different types of hubs (let me call it social gathering hot spots): markets (with limited intimate contact between participants); sport events (stadiums, where after a game supporters will hug each other and go out to drink some biers in large groups); and pubs, bars,discotheques (where people get physically very close to a large number of other people). I’d believe that the R on every of these types of hot spots is very different, so to determine what kind of event should be allowed at a given phase of a lockdown phase, it would be interesting to simulate them separately.
- Rate of infection: I wonder if asymptomatic people (some of the yellow dots in your simulation), are as infectious as those that have symptoms (and sneeze and caught). Not sure how much this would change the simulations though...

Finally, I have the feeling that mobility is very hard to model accurately. When I look at the concrete cases around me, I see that people do not move socially randomly like mostly made in simulations I’ve seen. Rather, we tend have a large number of contacts inside our immediate family, then a bit less with the colleagues in same the office, finally much less frequently with our friends/sport pals, finally with the rest of the community (in supermarkets, restaurants, bars, etc). In the of the simulations, it’s as if you create another layer of boxes within each community box. Inside those smaller boxes it is very difficult to enforce social distancing, but between them it’s easier to do it (eg close all restaurants and stop sport events, etc). I would expect that one could relax the social distancing rules inside a “micro box” (eg family, close friends, maybe office colleagues) while enforcing strict rules for other interactions (eg in those social hot spots that I mentioned before) and still get similar results that one obtain by asking every single person to observe strict social distancing to absolutely everyone (outside own’s household). (Off course, risk persons need strict social distancing from everyone, in my opinion).
The purpose of all this talk... is that it’s easier for a society to follow some sort of tolerant social rules for a long time rather than very stringent (and certainly very effective) rules. If the rules are very stringent, humans can only follow them for weeks, not months, and start being careless after some time. I live in Switzerland and I can observe that after several weeks of carefully the following social distance rules, recently almost everyone started not to follow them at all...
In any case, huge appraisal for your work !

@veggiet2009

5y↑76

I would like a simulation where:

A. Every new infection starts out as undetected for a time period, and
B. where once a detection happens, 1/3 of the population immediately self quarantine's, and 1/3 begins social distancing. and I'd play around with those percentages, and see how the curve might (or might not) be affected...

This seems like the reaction in my locality. EVERYONE is experiencing an almost forced social distancing because stores have closed either of their own accord or because of city order, but not everyone is taking it seriously and life seems to be going on as though nothing were happening.

@prapanthebachelorette6803

Interesting

@Alberto-xj9vy

5y↑38

In these simulations you have serious boundary effects, especially in the social distancing case. You should use PERIODIC boundary conditions, so that when one particles reach one side of the box, it would exit one side and enter the opposite side, thus effectively resulting in a volume (or surface, in this case) that is finite but with no boundaries.

@280alex

5y↑3

I guess that the bounds of the video are appropriate for cities, while the fact of there being multiple cities is reflected in the video too

@Jacob-ye7gu

people have boundaries. they generally stay within certain confines. i think this is a decent model. the main issue is the spacing relative to the size of the individual. i think the model needs to be bigger with more motion. this is supposed to be the entirety of movement of a person in a day, sped up and presented over the course of months

@youssefderrazi6246

5y↑153

21:43 : "I'm writing this during a pandemic." That just hit hard.

@StevenMartinGuitar

5y↑4

Why, you didn't know already? We're on legal lockdown here in the UK

@Thisisahandle701

5y↑7

@@StevenMartinGuitar You think you're special? All of Europe is in lockdown. -That's how you sound, by the way.

@miguelgazquez5717

5y↑8

@@Thisisahandle701 He just live in UK, so he say that he is on legal lockdown, on UK. What's the problem ? You think you're special ? In India population is on lockdown, and so for the majority of people in the world. As far as I know, there is 3 billions of persons in lockdown( ~ 700 millions people in Europe)

@jadeblades

5y↑4

@@miguelgazquez5717 not the point lmao

@camtugueder

5y↑11

I can't believe this has been up since March and I've just now found it. I've actually been toying with the idea of creating the same kind of simulation since covid started, only trying to make it as close to reality as I reasonably can. I wonder why he didn't post any follow ups on this, introducing more and more features like putting people in families/houses, creating different centers where a lot of people go with different rules (like a hospital in particular is a great way to spread disease) and giving people profiles like essential workers and such. And most important of all, and much easier, get age into the equation and have a vulnerable population of people who will actually die if they get the disease and see how isolating those people or reducing their movement would fare. I will try to get this project to run and see if I can modify it. With not a lot of extra variables and abstractions I believe this would tend to be an actual scientific way of testing different real strategies. In any case, great job and amazing content, thumbs up all the way.

@chriseffpunkt4333

5y↑1

Calculating abilities of his Computer might be a reason. I can imagine these simulations getting more and more complicated the further you take them. But I agree, would have been nice. And yeah, I also just found this

@camtugueder

5y↑2

@@chriseffpunkt4333 if you mean that he may have or knew that he was going to hit a limit of how complicated the interactions could get and keep a constant rate to simulate in real time, that sounds like it would definitely happen as the complexity adds up, and it will depend on the complexity and the amount of particles. The good news is the particles just need to be statistically significant, so that number can be kept pretty low.

That's an easy enough problem to get around tho, by not simulating in real time, but instead running a simulation which takes all the time it needs to figure out a timeline of events and store them somewhere. Then to show them happening in real time you just "play" the interactions in order and there's only the limit of the ability of the rendering engine to manage all the movements of the pixels or dots, which should handle a huge amount of movement. Of course as complexity continued to rise another limit would arise which would be how long the computation will take to produce the timeline (i.e if it takes a year to compute it, it may be futile). But that limit nowadays can be surpassed easily with distributed computing which can take what would take a year for one computer, and compute it in seconds. Only then you may run into a hard limit with an amount of interactions and complexity which would take all of the world's computers together too long to run it, but that limit should allow for many many magnitudes higher of complexity than the one for this simulation.

I suspect the current state of the simulation is very far from being limited by his computer's resources and there's still a lot of leeway there, but if not, running the simulations and then playing them should be enough for the most complexity we could think of with a low number of particles. And furthermore, if we wanted to actually do it for a huge amount of particles, the strategies mentioned could be leveraged to compute at the actual limit of all the computing power we've got. Doing something like this, Google and Apple joined together for instance could use all of the data they have on mobile phone locations for different countries and simulations can be run using the actual movement of people to spread the disease.

Sorry for the long explanation, I've thought about this a lot lately, and by the way I don't mean to put you or him or anyone down.

@ruedigersens9888

I am a 66 years old physical chemist and quantum chemist and from that also familiar with differential equations. So I've also been playing around with all kinds of SEIRS models.
That was quite satisfactory but frankly speaking, I began to lose the overview. I refer to Chinese simulation programs with up to 12 or 15 coupled differential equations that also accounted for all the measures reported from 3Blue1Brown. But never in such a pedagogical superb way as 3Blue1Brown did it. I'm also blown away by that! Just 3 hours ago I rechecked it again with special consideration of the urban centers since especially in large German cities the infection figures per one hundred thousand inhabitants go through the roof and the second wave comes. With some goodwill now easy to understand, provided you invest some brain grease. Unfortunately, we only hear babbling in Talk-shows. Please Emiliano, try to adapt the simulation closer to reality and let me know. If you're interested I could provide you with helpful links to really interesting Chinese and Russian programs. I have also done some basic translations of Chinese to german or English. I wish I were younger and more familiar with modern programming and could do the job on my own, LOL. Greetings from Germany

@VulpeculaJoy

5y↑38

This is the part that I love about maths the most: when we use it to understand a problem and make decisions how to act upon it.

@GoreMyst09

5y↑2

Random fun math fact about maths: works no matter what language you do it in and in principle you can communicate via mathematics even if you share no common languages.

@peterjones3460

5y↑1

@jgsource552

Peter Jones i agree, anyways, i reccomend you search up event 201. It relates to your last statement about masterminds. It’s pretty scary and proves that this is no mere coincidence

@dresdnhope

5y↑154

3B1B: I'll emphasize these are TOY models and I leave it to intelligence of the viewer to determine what it would mean for you.
Me, the viewer: But if I have a TOY brain?

@theavo

@Whats Thepoint what exactly do you mean by that? How does it look in practice, then?

@qwazy01

@@theavo I would imagine messier. I imagine the models are to account for every factor encountered in reality, and like in one of the models we saw the outcome can vary widely due to randomness.

@BurnerAccount777

5y↑5

I love the style of your visual interpretation. I just love it!

@beanmariocow8601

5y↑333

did anyone else pick a dot and then see if they would survive

@bobtheagent9087

5y↑23

They are too small for my phone plus it’s hard to track them

@NoriMori1992

5y↑17

No but I might try it now.

@markwilson2421

4y↑2

You should only do so if you're older than 75 otherwise this is no different to the flu

@Memerath

4y↑16

@@markwilson2421 hey bro, you dropped your shitty opinion in this unrelated comment’s replies

@Memerath

@Tahmid alpha12 you right, thx

@qswaefrdthzg

5y↑183

Social distancing leads to crystallisation 😂

@louf7178

5y↑1

Looked familiar to me also.

@pythoncake2708

5y↑6

he just simulates gases. some even defuse out the box

@YourArmsGone

5y↑6

@@pythoncake2708 Darn helium.

@sevenproxies

5y↑21

I find the spread of viruses easier to understand on a macro scale when it's described with math, rather than from some 374560893745 contradicting politicians and what you read in the news.
Thank you for this beautiful piece of mind. Cheers!

@mikedemoss9953

5y↑8

This is fantastic, you have basically answered every question I have had for the past three weeks!

@ishanpednekar6576

4y↑1

One of the three best videos on Covid19 on YouTube (Edit:The other's are Kurzgesagt's and your other video)
Thank you 3B1B

@maxfierro551

5y↑17

Just wanted to say thank you. I do not mean this in terms of intelligence (as for which I've no doubt you lack), but you truly are a genius in what you do. All of your videos are wonderfully intuitive and provide a view of the most elegant aspects of not only mathematics, but also of problem solving and analysis in general. This video is truly excellent; you have provided new, original information to a community who craves for deeper understanding in the underlying dynamics of situations, specially of such relevance. Best wishes for the future, stay safe!

@qwazy01

5y↑6

Max I think you maybe meant to say "... intelligence (as for which I've no doubt you have in abundance)"

As it reads to me, you are sure there is a lack of intelligence

@Nerr0o0

No, he meant 3Blue is dumb as a rock

@Quasihamster

5y↑594

"Unnoticed and spreadable in everyone before eventually becoming lethal."
Another Plague Inc. employee I see? Mwahaha!

@delayed_control

5y↑31

The scary thing is that's what coronavirus seems to do, it's like fucking Plague Inc. players designed a bioweapon. This shit is scary yet a lot of communities don't take it seriously.

@asdfghyter

5y↑38

@@ChronicVision1955 🤦Let me humour you for a moment. What is supposed to be the symptoms for those who die of a vaccine?

@jowl5203

5y↑17

@@ChronicVision1955 Would you care to explain further as I am interested in hearing what you mean?

@Leyrann

5y↑21

Wouldn't work in the Plague Inc way because viruses can't mutate everywhere at once in the real world... but just imagine a disease like AIDS that has a years-long incubation time before showing... except it spreads like the flu or, well, covid-19, rather than only by sexual contact.

The good news is that there's various reasons why something like that is very unlikely to actually happen.

@666Tomato666

5y↑1

@@asdfghyter the symptoms are not getting a pay-cheque in rubles

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@superpuredragon1

5y↑110

Your programming skills are truly incredible.

@martinferrand4711

5y↑8

He is good but simulations like those aren't hard to do at all ^^

@TL-fe9si

5y↑14

@@martinferrand4711 The visualization is pretty good and intuitive.

@souvikdas1191

@T L "Pretty"?

@luigineri4364

5y↑8

@@martinferrand4711 how would you do simulations like that? Which software would you use? I would like to know how he does that

@martinferrand4711

5y↑2

@@TL-fe9si the visualization is awesome ^-^ i was more talking about the modelization itself ! (How the model work, the physic of each interractions etc..)
But he is doing an really impressive job in the field of look, it's super nice and clean ^-^ i could do the model but i don't know how to do the super cool graphics haha

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@joshgreen19

4y↑1

Your content is amazing and sorely needed. Thank you!

@weakamna

5y↑20

One thing that might improve the quarantining model is to move people back into the population after a while, and simulating different time periods of "looks safe" (no symptoms anymore) vs time infectious. This might show the effect of people self-quarantining, but not realizing that they might be infectious before/after symptoms are visible.

@ChazCharlie1

5y↑33

I love how the 100% social distancing case created a crystal

@CarlosMartinez-jn2cf

5y↑7

This one of the greatest videos I've seen, very illustrative, well explained, all the variables were on point. Thanks a lot for doing this!

@igorpashev

absolutely unrealistic: how to detect cases? where isolate them (at site)? R depends on absolute humidity. Distancing is bullshit, because respiratory disease can travel over kilometers.

@CarlosMartinez-jn2cf

@@igorpashev SARS-Cov2 isn't airborne

@RedWinePlease

Excellent animation to support your takeaways. Understanding the exponential effects of a contagion is difficult. Your work makes it much easier to understand.
Thank you and your supporters for this work.

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