Reality
j.onvlee Lyrics
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You know I be busy but today I'm making time
You been outa character acting outa line
Use this opportunity to speak what's on your mind
How dare you go a day without you checking in
If you're giving me silence then the question is
Okay tell me what it is you're invested in
I guess we're jumping to conclusions with no evidence
I know it don't seem like it cuz I'm never there
But all I do is work I never go nowhere
You're used to fake niggas now you stay prepared
But you can't live in fear I know you hate it there
I understand where you're coming from I swear
But that ain't where we're going let me make it clear
Poker face but you could win with a pair
But love is hard beware
If it was easy you wouldn't need me
You know love ain't always how it look on tv
It's feeling like you're looking for a reason for leaving
But when you leave me you be grieving
Wasn't you just saying you complete me
It's feeling like a season of reality tv
Wanting a sense of control that you never had
So you go back and forth when you be get mad
You act like I'm the root of all these problems
I'm Einstein so i guess I gotta solve em
One carry the two oh damn I did it wrong
But this is new ain't no blueprint to follow on
I build you up just for you to tear yourself down
And blame it all on me when you turn around
Damn
If it was easy you wouldn't need me
You know love ain't always how it look on tv
It's feeling like you're looking for a reason for leaving
But when you leave me you be grieving
Wasn't you just saying you complete me
It's feeling like a season of reality tv
The lyrics of J.Onvlee's song Reality depict the singer's escape from the harsh realities of life through substance abuse. He starts by drinking whiskey, gin, and vodka, revealing his desperation to numb himself from his troubles. As he pours himself into drugs and other inebriating substances, he acknowledges that his perception of reality has changed. However, he also realizes a paradox: the blues - the feeling of sadness, despair, and hopelessness - that comes with the harsh realities of life also dissipates as he gets high.
The singer goes from taking a toke of reefer to injecting morphine, suggesting his worsening addiction to drugs. Despite his highs, his life remains a cycle of going "up around here, down again" without any real progress or fulfillment. Ultimately, the singer realizes that his efforts to escape from reality do not change anything but his perception. Reality remains the same, and the solution to his problems does not lie in substance abuse.
The lyrics of Reality confront the dangerous and often destructive coping mechanism of substance abuse. They highlight the temporary nature of the “high” as a means of avoidance and the inevitability of reality. The song is a commentary on the vicious cycle of addiction and the sense of hopelessness it can create. The lyrics underscore that addiction is often the result of underlying emotional and psychological issues that require professional help for resolution.
Line by Line Meaning
One drink of whiskey, one drink of gin
After consuming drinks of whiskey and gin, the singer begins to experience a change in their perception of reality.
One drink of vodka and I told my friends
Following a drink of vodka, the singer becomes open with their friends about their altered state of mind.
Things don't seem quite like they used to
The singer observes that their surroundings and experiences are not as familiar and predictable as they once were.
As reality leaves, so does the blues
Along with the fading of their grasp on reality, the emotions of sadness and despair also begin to slip away.
One toke of reefer, a little cocaine
After smoking marijuana and using a small amount of cocaine, the artist further intensifies their altered state of perception.
One shot of morphine and things begin to change
The consumption of morphine has a significant impact on the singer's consciousness and sense of reality.
Up around here, back down again
The singer has experienced highs and lows in their life, and those experiences impact their current state of mind.
I've been up on top, don't bother, my friend
The artist is dismissive of their past successes and does not find them relevant to their current experience.
Things don't seem quite like they used to
The artist continues to observe the disorienting changes in their perception of reality.
As reality leaves, so does the blues
The artist again notes that their emotional pain is alleviated along with their fading grasp on reality.
Lyrics © DistroKid
Written by: Christina Dahl, Dominyque Allen, Jonathan Green II
Lyrics Licensed & Provided by LyricFind
Deanna Gilbert
@CapSora The big limiting component is chaos. But there have also been improvements due to faster computers (which allow for smaller scales to be modelled directly) and higher resolution of satellite photos, among other things.
As for the discrepancy with the impression of accuracy, it really comes down to confirmation bias. You care much more when you make a decision based on the forecast and the forecast is wrong, than when you make it and the forecast is right. And so you'll remember when it's wrong more often.
Also, you more often 'lose' more when it's wrong, and humans value loss more than gain.
But also, it depends on what being "wrong" actually is. For instance, if the probability of precipitation is 30%, and the forecasted amount is 0.25" and it rains...but it rains 0.30" instead....was the forecast "wrong" Technically, sure. But most people wouldn't care about a difference of only 0.05" of rain...and probably wouldn't even be able to tell the difference.
If I forecast sun with a high of 72, and it's 75...does anyone care? But what if I forecast rain, with a low of 34...but instead that low is 32...you're probably seeing snow instead of rain, even though my temperature forecast is actually closer.
And you'll probably wonder what was wrong with the forecaster that they couldn't forecast snow.
Jeffrey Stewart
Wow, man... as a former weather forecaster for the US Air Force, i can confidently say that this video has SO much wrong with it. This makes it seem like we have no idea how the weather works. On the contrary, we understand convective processes very well and can very accurately predict things like thunderstorms. What's harder to predict are the individual locations of those little brief summer showers, but even then, we forecast the conditions that they will happen in, not the individual isolated showers themselves. That's why the term "scattered showers" is used. It means the conditions are right for them to pop up at a moments notice over a broader area.
We forecast for a broad area, not for your specific neighborhood.
The air force and local airports have a 5 mile forecast radius, while tv weather and NWS have a forecast area that may be much much larger, so a 30% chance of rain means that its for that specific FORECAST AREA. For example, i live in northeast Texas and fall under the Dallas-Fort Worth forecast area. DFW is more than 100 miles away. So that 30% rain applies to a much broader area than just MY tiny city area.
Oh, and snow? Yeah, that's not like rain, where its just a specific amount. No, you take that single inch of what would be rain and multiply it, based on temperature and the available moisture in the atmosphere. You can easily end up having TEN times the amount of what instead be liquid water. Snow and especially freezing rain are some of the downright hardest things to forecast.
We're literally predicting the future of a chaotic system, folks. We're gonna be wrong sometimes. So next time you're ready to complain about a 30% chance of rain that didn't happen, or a inch more snow than originally forecast, remember this.
Give your local weatherman a fucking break.
@MinuteEarth, your grade for this video is a C- and that's being lenient. Research better next time.
Deanna Gilbert
As a professional weather forecaster, I always shake my head when I’m told how weather forecasts “suck” considering, with the exception of prediction of astronomical objects, weather forecasts are the most successful forms of predicting humans do.
There are several things in this video that are just plain wrong though, and make it seem like convection is completely a mystery. It’s not. We might not know quantities to super precision but we can predict whether we’re getting just showers or severe thunderstorms. And convection usually is LARGER than the resolution of radar beams, not smaller. We know the wind speeds and can watch how fast showers or storms are moving. This is how the Storm Prediction Center can actually do Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Tornado Warnings, and give estimates of when the storm will arrive in different locations.
Seriously usually videos on this channel are good, but as a lesson in meteorology, this one is not.
CapSora
I'd love to hear more about this; what's the limiting component to weather predictions then? The observations, the chaotic nature of weather, or something else?
Also, what's the cause of the discrepancy between humans generally considering weather forecasts to be poor? Is it just because we experience weather in a local scale, whereas weather forecasts are accurate on a larger scale?
Deanna Gilbert
@CapSora The big limiting component is chaos. But there have also been improvements due to faster computers (which allow for smaller scales to be modelled directly) and higher resolution of satellite photos, among other things.
As for the discrepancy with the impression of accuracy, it really comes down to confirmation bias. You care much more when you make a decision based on the forecast and the forecast is wrong, than when you make it and the forecast is right. And so you'll remember when it's wrong more often.
Also, you more often 'lose' more when it's wrong, and humans value loss more than gain.
But also, it depends on what being "wrong" actually is. For instance, if the probability of precipitation is 30%, and the forecasted amount is 0.25" and it rains...but it rains 0.30" instead....was the forecast "wrong" Technically, sure. But most people wouldn't care about a difference of only 0.05" of rain...and probably wouldn't even be able to tell the difference.
If I forecast sun with a high of 72, and it's 75...does anyone care? But what if I forecast rain, with a low of 34...but instead that low is 32...you're probably seeing snow instead of rain, even though my temperature forecast is actually closer.
And you'll probably wonder what was wrong with the forecaster that they couldn't forecast snow.
CapSora
@Deanna Gilbert that's a great explanation, thank you!
Marco Smith
Thank you. I'm in the UK and our weather forecasts have improved a lot over the past 40 years. Come on @minuteearth a response is needed here 🤔
Reellron
Or perhaps all their videos are greatly flawed and you just know enough about this subject to know that this particular one is greatly flawed.
A Dödi
This is good timing as in Hungary the Government fired the heads of the National Weather Forecast Agency, because they "predicted the weather wrong" during our national holiday, so they had to cancel the event.
The ironic thing in it, that it was the Government who decided to cancel the event, not the Weather Service.
It must be a hard job, and I really felt bad for the Weathermans.
Limey Lassen
That reminds me of Caligula declaring war on the sea 😐
Betti P
This is blatant OMSZ propaganda /s
Bianka
Was looking for this comment😀